Sheffield Wednesday 4–2 Derby: Result & Stats

Sheffield Wednesday

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Derby

A. Musaba 74'

D. Gassama 63'

J. Windass 61'

B. Bannan 8'

E. Adams 90+1'

J. Yates 68'

1/1/2025

Championship · Round 25Hillsborough

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 42+ matches

Sheffield Wednesday37%

×Draw26%

Derby36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield WednesdayExpected goals in this matchDerby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.29

Sheffield Wednesday

1.31

Derby

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 45 away

1.31

creates per match

1.01

1.57

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Sheffield Wednesday

1.31

Derby

1.01

allows per match

Sheffield Wednesday

1.57

Derby

1.32

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

Sheffield Wednesday-0.29scores less

Derby+0.28scores more

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Wednesday ↓

Derby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sheffield Wednesday or draw

64%

Sheffield Wednesday or Derby

74%

Draw or Derby

63%

Winning margin

Sheffield Wednesday wins by 2+

17%

Derby wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sheffield Wednesday 1+ goals

73%

Sheffield Wednesday 2+ goals

38%

Sheffield Wednesday 3+ goals

14%

Derby 1+ goals

72%

Derby 2+ goals

37%

Derby 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Wednesday (draw refunded)

51%

Derby (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Wednesday at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.57 · 42 matches

Derby away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.32 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.31 + Derby defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Derby attack 1.01 + Sheffield Wednesday defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sheffield Wednesday scores more

37%

level

26%

Derby scores more

36%

Sheffield Wednesday at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sheffield Wednesday will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

41

D. Gassama

Sheffield Wednesday · M

8.0

Match Events

8'

B. Bannan

32'

Ebou Adams

34'

Kenzo Goudmijn

46'

G. Otegbayo← M. Johnson

46'

J. Windass← N. Chalobah

46'

D. Brown← K. Jackson

46'

C. Elder← S. Bradley

46'

L. Thompson← M. Harness

58'

A. Musaba← B. Bannan

58'

M. Smith← I. Ugbo

61'

J. Windass↳ M. Smith

63'

D. Gassama↳ S. Ingelsson

64'

N. Mendez-Laing← K. Goudmijn

68'

J. Yates

73'

T. Barkhuizen← K. Wilson

74'

C. Paterson← D. Gassama

74'

A. Musaba

85'

Shea Charles

90+1'

E. Adams↳ C. Nelson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheffieldDerby

Overview

39%Possession61%

13Total Shots17

2.13Expected Goals (xG)2.56

4Corners11

8Fouls8

Shots

13Total Shots17

8On Target8

1Off Target5

4Blocked4

7Inside Box15

6Outside Box2

Passing

39%Possession61%

309Total Passes451

215Accurate Passes358

70%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

6Saves4

-0.69Goals Prevented-0.69

Discipline

8Fouls8

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1