Derby 1–2 Sheffield Wednesday: Result & Stats

Derby

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Sheffield Wednesday

E. Adams 9'

J. Lowe 90+4'

B. Bannan 64'

12/1/2024

Championship · Round 18Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 42+ matches

Derby50%

×Draw27%

Sheffield Wednesday24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DerbyExpected goals in this matchSheffield Wednesday

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.92

Derby

1.46

Sheffield Wednesday

0.92

Derby creates 59% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 42 away

1.22

creates per match

0.83

1.01

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Derby

1.22

Sheffield Wednesday

0.83

allows per match

Derby

1.01

Sheffield Wednesday

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

Derby+0.00on par

Sheffield Wednesday+0.19scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Sheffield Wednesday →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Derby or draw

76%

Derby or Sheffield Wednesday

73%

Draw or Sheffield Wednesday

50%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+

25%

Sheffield Wednesday wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals

77%

Derby 2+ goals

43%

Derby 3+ goals

18%

Sheffield Wednesday 1+ goals

60%

Sheffield Wednesday 2+ goals

23%

Sheffield Wednesday 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)

68%

Sheffield Wednesday (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.01 · 46 matches

Sheffield Wednesday away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.69 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.22 + Sheffield Wednesday defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.46

Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.83 + Derby defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Derby scores more

50%

level

27%

Sheffield Wednesday scores more

24%

Derby at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

E. Adams

Derby · M

7.7

Match Events

9'

E. Adams↳ M. Harness

21'

Barry Bannan

37'

Ebou Adams

46'

L. Palmer← Pol Valentín

46'

J. Windass← D. Iorfa

47'

Marcus Harness

57'

T. Barkhuizen← N. Mendez-Laing

57'

K. Jackson← M. Harness

58'

J. Lowe← D. Gassama

64'

B. Bannan

69'

N. Chalobah← A. Musaba

71'

Ben Osborn

79'

C. Elder← L. Thompson

79'

K. Goudmijn← B. Osborn

79'

C. Paterson← M. Smith

85'

89'

90+5'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DerbySheffield

Overview

51%Possession49%

13Total Shots10

1.83Expected Goals (xG)0.94

7Corners5

20Fouls7

Shots

13Total Shots10

4On Target2

4Off Target5

5Blocked3

10Inside Box5

3Outside Box5

Passing

51%Possession49%

377Total Passes359

302Accurate Passes284

80%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

-0.03Goals Prevented-0.03

Discipline

20Fouls7

5Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0