Sheffield Wednesday 1–0 Derby: Result & Stats

Sheffield Wednesday

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Derby

M. Smith 43' (pen)

5/7/2023

League One · Round 46Hillsborough

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Sheffield Wednesday48%

×Draw26%

Derby27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield WednesdayExpected goals in this matchDerby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.06

Sheffield Wednesday

1.51

Derby

1.06

Sheffield Wednesday creates 42% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 46 away

2.04

creates per match

1.39

0.73

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Sheffield Wednesday

2.04

Derby

1.39

allows per match

Sheffield Wednesday

0.73

Derby

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sheffield Wednesday+0.00on par

Derby+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Wednesday ↓

Derby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sheffield Wednesday or draw

73%

Sheffield Wednesday or Derby

74%

Draw or Derby

52%

Winning margin

Sheffield Wednesday wins by 2+

24%

Derby wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sheffield Wednesday 1+ goals

78%

Sheffield Wednesday 2+ goals

44%

Sheffield Wednesday 3+ goals

19%

Derby 1+ goals

65%

Derby 2+ goals

29%

Derby 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Wednesday (draw refunded)

64%

Derby (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Wednesday at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.73 · 51 matches

Derby away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.98 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Wednesday attack 2.04 + Derby defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.51

Derby attack 1.39 + Sheffield Wednesday defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sheffield Wednesday scores more

48%

level

26%

Derby scores more

27%

Sheffield Wednesday at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sheffield Wednesday will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

C. Dawson

Sheffield Wednesday · G

8.3

Match Events

41'

Curtis Davies

43'

Haydon Roberts

43'

M. SmithPenalty

44'

61'

65'

69'

69'

T. Barkhuizen← N. Mendez-Laing

74'

Liam Palmer

74'

H. White← J. Knight

74'

J. Collins← C. Hourihane

77'

Korey Smith

78'

J. Hunt← L. Palmer

79'

T. Bakinson← B. Bannan

85'

S. Durrant← F. Dele-Bashiru

90+1'

Marvin Johnson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheffieldDerby

Overview

53%Possession47%

18Total Shots10

2Corners6

10Fouls8

Shots

18Total Shots10

4On Target6

8Off Target0

6Blocked4

9Inside Box4

9Outside Box6

Passing

53%Possession47%

427Total Passes379

344Accurate Passes295

81%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls8

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

3Offsides2