Sheffield Wednesday 1–3 Derby: Result & Stats

Sheffield Wednesday

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Derby

J. Windass 74'

J. Knight 30'

T. Lawrence 24', 7'

2/29/2020

Championship · Round 36Hillsborough

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 45+ matches

Sheffield Wednesday37%

×Draw27%

Derby36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield WednesdayExpected goals in this matchDerby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.25

Sheffield Wednesday

1.28

Derby

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 45 away

1.24

creates per match

1.01

1.50

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Sheffield Wednesday

1.24

Derby

1.01

allows per match

Sheffield Wednesday

1.50

Derby

1.32

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

Sheffield Wednesday-0.28scores less

Derby+0.28scores more

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Wednesday ↓

Derby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sheffield Wednesday or draw

64%

Sheffield Wednesday or Derby

73%

Draw or Derby

63%

Winning margin

Sheffield Wednesday wins by 2+

16%

Derby wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sheffield Wednesday 1+ goals

72%

Sheffield Wednesday 2+ goals

37%

Sheffield Wednesday 3+ goals

14%

Derby 1+ goals

71%

Derby 2+ goals

36%

Derby 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Wednesday (draw refunded)

51%

Derby (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Wednesday at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.50 · 49 matches

Derby away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.32 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.24 + Derby defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.28

Derby attack 1.01 + Sheffield Wednesday defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sheffield Wednesday scores more

37%

level

27%

Derby scores more

36%

Sheffield Wednesday at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sheffield Wednesday will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

C. Martin

Derby · F

8.1

Match Events

7'

T. Lawrence↳ C. Martin

24'

T. Lawrence↳ C. Martin

30'

J. Knight↳ C. Martin

39'

C. Wickham← K. Harris

41'

Barry Bannan

46'

D. Iorfa← T. Lees

46'

J. Windass← S. Fletcher

58'

C. Davies← J. Knight

74'

J. Windass↳ J. Murphy

76'

G. Shinnie← C. Martin

77'

J. Marriott← M. Waghorn

82'

Graeme Shinnie

87'

Dominic Iorfa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheffieldDerby

Overview

51%Possession49%

15Total Shots13

9Corners3

14Fouls8

Shots

15Total Shots13

4On Target5

6Off Target3

5Blocked5

9Inside Box6

6Outside Box7

Passing

51%Possession49%

402Total Passes411

309Accurate Passes293

77%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides2