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Sheffield Utd vs QPR — Championship 2018

Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
QPR
QPR
11/8/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 15Bramall Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 44+ matches

Sheffield Utd51%
×Draw26%
QPR23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sheffield Utd
1.48
QPR
0.90

Sheffield Utd creates 64% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 57 away

creates per match

Sheffield Utd
1.73
QPR
0.79

allows per match

Sheffield Utd
1.01
QPR
1.22

finishing

Sheffield Utd-0.14scores less
QPR+0.10scores more

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Utd ↓

QPR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sheffield Utd or draw
77%
Sheffield Utd or QPR
74%
Draw or QPR
49%

Winning margin

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+
26%
QPR wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals
77%
Sheffield Utd 2+ goals
43%
Sheffield Utd 3+ goals
19%
QPR 1+ goals
59%
QPR 2+ goals
23%
QPR 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)
69%
QPR (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Utd at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.01 · 44 matches

QPR away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.22 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Utd attack 1.73 + QPR defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.48

QPR attack 0.79 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sheffield Utd scores more
51%
level
26%
QPR scores more
23%

Sheffield Utd at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24
N. MadsenQPRQPR · M
7.5

Match Events

45+2'
Amadou Salif Mbengue
46'
M. McGuinness← B. Mee
56'
T. Davies← J. Riedewald
63'
Jonathan Varane
68'
C. Ogbene← A. Brooks
72'
H. Vale← K. Dembele
78'
K. Morgan← A. S. Mbengue
78'
M. Frey← R. Kone
81'
H. Burrows← S. McCallum
81'
R. One← T. Campbell

Possession

61%Sheffield

Shots

20Sheffield

Pass accuracy

55%Sheffield

Statistics

SheffieldQPR
Overview
61%Possession39%
20Total Shots13
1.41Expected Goals (xG)0.65
14Corners5
6Fouls7
Shots
20Total Shots13
3On Target4
9Off Target4
8Blocked5
14Inside Box9
6Outside Box4
Passing
61%Possession39%
404Total Passes268
307Accurate Passes164
76%Pass Accuracy61%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
0.41Goals Prevented0.41
Discipline
6Fouls7
0Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Championship: Sheffield Utd 0–0 QPR

Sheffield Utd and QPR drew 0-0 in Championship on November 8, 2025.

Sheffield Utd controlled possession (61%) and registered 20 shots to 13.

The match was played at Bramall Lane in Sheffield.