QPR 1–2 Sheffield Utd: Result & Stats

QPR

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Sheffield Utd

M. Frey 72' (pen)

T. Campbell 54'

B. Brereton 10'

3/1/2025

Championship · Round 35MATRADE Loftus Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 42+ matches

QPR37%

×Draw27%

Sheffield Utd35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

QPRExpected goals in this matchSheffield Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.21

QPR

1.25

Sheffield Utd

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 42 away

1.32

creates per match

1.31

1.11

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

QPR

1.32

Sheffield Utd

1.31

allows per match

QPR

1.11

Sheffield Utd

1.19

+0.08on par

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

QPR+0.08on par

Sheffield Utd+0.09on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Sheffield Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

QPR or draw

65%

QPR or Sheffield Utd

73%

Draw or Sheffield Utd

63%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+

16%

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals

71%

QPR 2+ goals

36%

QPR 3+ goals

13%

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

70%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

34%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)

51%

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 57 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.19 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.32 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.25

Sheffield Utd attack 1.31 + QPR defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

QPR scores more

37%

level

27%

Sheffield Utd scores more

35%

QPR at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

B. Brereton

Sheffield Utd · M

8.3

Match Events

10'

B. Brereton↳ Vinicius Souza

14'

Hamza Choudhury

49'

Jimmy Dunne

54'

T. Campbell↳ B. Brereton

57'

K. Saito← K. Morgan

62'

Anel Ahmedhodžić

64'

F. Seriki← H. Choudhury

64'

R. Brewster← G. Hamer

67'

P. Smyth← K. Paal

67'

A. Lloyd← Yang Min-Hyeok

72'

M. FreyPenalty

73'

T. Cannon← T. Campbell

74'

S. McCallum← C. OHare

75'

Ben Brereton Díaz

78'

Jack Colback

81'

K. Dembélé← J. Colback

81'

M. Fox← S. Cook

85'

R. Holding← B. Brereton

86'

Alfie Lloyd

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

QPRSheffield

Overview

56%Possession44%

16Total Shots8

1.40Expected Goals (xG)0.91

6Corners2

15Fouls14

Shots

16Total Shots8

4On Target2

9Off Target3

3Blocked3

8Inside Box5

8Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

454Total Passes378

369Accurate Passes285

81%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

0.12Goals Prevented0.12

Discipline

15Fouls14

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1