Sheffield Utd 2–2 QPR: Result & Stats

Sheffield Utd

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

QPR

K. Moore 13'

G. Hamer 6'

L. Dykes 88'

J. Dunne 55'

8/17/2024

Championship · Round 2Bramall Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 44+ matches

Sheffield Utd51%

×Draw26%

QPR23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield UtdExpected goals in this matchQPR

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.90

Sheffield Utd

1.48

QPR

0.90

Sheffield Utd creates 64% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 57 away

1.73

creates per match

0.79

1.01

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Sheffield Utd

1.73

QPR

0.79

allows per match

Sheffield Utd

1.01

QPR

1.22

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Sheffield Utd-0.14scores less

QPR+0.10scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Utd ↓

QPR →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sheffield Utd or draw

77%

Sheffield Utd or QPR

74%

Draw or QPR

49%

Winning margin

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

26%

QPR wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

77%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

43%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

19%

QPR 1+ goals

59%

QPR 2+ goals

23%

QPR 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

69%

QPR (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Utd at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.01 · 44 matches

QPR away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.22 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Utd attack 1.73 + QPR defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.48

QPR attack 0.79 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Sheffield Utd scores more

51%

level

26%

QPR scores more

23%

Sheffield Utd at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

G. Hamer

Sheffield Utd · M

8.6

Match Events

6'

11'

13'

31'

43'

P. Smyth← L. Andersen

45+1'

Jonathan Varane

46'

J. Colback← J. Varane

55'

67'

68'

72'

77'

H. Souttar← A. Gilchrist

79'

Jack Colback

83'

Jack Colback

83'

Jack Colback

85'

S. Peck← C. OHare

85'

A. Ben Slimane← A. Brooks

85'

L. Dykes← M. Frey

88'

L. Dykes↳ K. Saito

90+1'

J. Rak-Sakyi← Vinicius Souza

90+1'

R. Brewster← A. Ahmedhodžić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheffieldQPR

Overview

51%Possession49%

14Total Shots14

1.71Expected Goals (xG)0.69

4Corners9

15Fouls9

Shots

14Total Shots14

3On Target3

4Off Target2

7Blocked9

11Inside Box9

3Outside Box5

Passing

51%Possession49%

434Total Passes408

358Accurate Passes337

82%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

-0.42Goals Prevented-0.42

Discipline

15Fouls9

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Sheffield Utd vs QPR

Sheffield Utd and QPR drew 2-2 in Championship on August 17, 2024.

Goals: G. Hamer (6'), K. Moore (13'), J. Dunne (55'), L. Dykes (88').

Sheffield Utd controlled possession (51%) and registered 14 shots to 14.

The match was played at Bramall Lane in Sheffield.

Sheffield Utd vs QPR — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Sheffield Utd vs QPR