Sheffield Utd 1–2 Manchester City: Result & Stats

Sheffield Utd

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Manchester City

J. Bogle 85'

Rodri 88'

E. Haaland 63'

8/27/2023

Premier League · Round 3Bramall Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Sheffield Utd24%

×Draw21%

Manchester City56%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield UtdExpected goals in this matchManchester City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

2.18

Sheffield Utd

1.36

Manchester City

2.18

Manchester City creates 60% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 35 away

1.53

creates per match

1.84

2.52

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Sheffield Utd

1.53

Manchester City

1.84

allows per match

Sheffield Utd

2.52

Manchester City

1.20

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

Sheffield Utd-0.33scores less

Manchester City-0.27scores less

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Utd ↓

Manchester City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Sheffield Utd or draw

44%

Sheffield Utd or Manchester City

79%

Draw or Manchester City

76%

Winning margin

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

10%

Manchester City wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

74%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

39%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

16%

Manchester City 1+ goals

89%

Manchester City 2+ goals

64%

Manchester City 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

30%

Manchester City (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Utd at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.52 · 5 matches

Manchester City away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.20 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Utd attack 1.53 + Manchester City defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.36

Manchester City attack 1.84 + Sheffield Utd defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sheffield Utd scores more

24%

level

21%

Manchester City scores more

56%

Manchester City at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

Rodri

Manchester City · M

8.9

Match Events

17'

Y. Larouci← B. Osborn

45+4'

George Baldock

59'

William Osula

63'

E. Haaland↳ J. Grealish

71'

J. Bogle← G. Baldock

71'

O. McBurnie← W. Osula

77'

Vinícius Souza

80'

C. Basham← O. Norwood

83'

John Egan

85'

J. Bogle

86'

P. Foden← M. Kovačić

88'

Rodri↳ P. Foden

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheffieldManchester

Overview

21%Possession79%

6Total Shots30

0.67Expected Goals (xG)3.60

1Corners12

11Fouls2

Shots

6Total Shots30

2On Target9

4Off Target13

0Blocked8

4Inside Box20

2Outside Box10

Passing

21%Possession79%

194Total Passes742

132Accurate Passes685

68%Pass Accuracy92%

Goalkeeping

7Saves0

Discipline

11Fouls2

4Yellow Cards0

1Offsides2