Manchester City 1–0 Sheffield Utd: Result & Stats

Manchester City

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sheffield Utd

Gabriel Jesus 9'

1/30/2021

Premier League · Round 21Etihad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Manchester City72%

×Draw18%

Sheffield Utd10%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester CityExpected goals in this matchSheffield Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

0.70

Manchester City

2.21

Sheffield Utd

0.70

Manchester City creates 216% more chances

Season form · 200 home / 45 away

2.70

creates per match

0.58

0.83

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Manchester City

2.70

Sheffield Utd

0.58

allows per match

Manchester City

0.83

Sheffield Utd

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manchester City+0.00on par

Sheffield Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City ↓

Sheffield Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Manchester City or draw

90%

Manchester City or Sheffield Utd

82%

Draw or Sheffield Utd

28%

Winning margin

Manchester City wins by 2+

47%

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Manchester City 1+ goals

89%

Manchester City 2+ goals

65%

Manchester City 3+ goals

38%

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

50%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

16%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Manchester City (draw refunded)

87%

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City at home — creates 2.70, concedes 0.83 · 200 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.71 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City attack 2.70 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.21

Sheffield Utd attack 0.58 + Manchester City defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Manchester City scores more

72%

level

18%

Sheffield Utd scores more

10%

Manchester City at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

Bernardo Silva

Manchester City · M

7.7

Match Events

9'

Gabriel Jesus↳ Ferran Torres

24'

Oliver Norwood

62'

D. McGoldrick← R. Brewster

77'

B. Sharp← O. Burke

78'

O. McBurnie← C. Basham

82'

George Baldock

84'

John Egan

90'

Rodri← Ferran Torres

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManchesterSheffield

Overview

75%Possession25%

10Total Shots4

10Corners0

7Fouls10

Shots

10Total Shots4

5On Target1

1Off Target2

4Blocked1

6Inside Box0

4Outside Box4

Passing

75%Possession25%

805Total Passes273

729Accurate Passes206

91%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

7Fouls10

0Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1