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Manchester City vs Sheffield Utd — League #45 2026

Manchester City
Manchester Cityadvanced
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd
R. Mahrez 66', 61', 43' (pen)
4/22/2023League #45League #45 · Semi-finalsWembley Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Manchester City95%
×Draw5%
Sheffield Utd1%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manchester City
3.50
Sheffield Utd
0.17

Manchester City creates 1959% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Manchester City
4.33
Sheffield Utd
0.00

allows per match

Manchester City
0.33
Sheffield Utd
2.67

finishing

Manchester City+0.00on par
Sheffield Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

85%No
  • No85
  • Yes15

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City ↓

Sheffield Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–12%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–13%
2–20%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–019%
3–13%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–017%
4–13%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (19%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
46%54%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Manchester City or draw
99%
Manchester City or Sheffield Utd
95%
Draw or Sheffield Utd
5%

Winning margin

Manchester City wins by 2+
82%
Sheffield Utd wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Manchester City 1+ goals
97%
Manchester City 2+ goals
85%
Manchester City 3+ goals
66%
Sheffield Utd 1+ goals
16%
Sheffield Utd 2+ goals
1%
Sheffield Utd 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Manchester City (draw refunded)
99%
Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)
1%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
14%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City at home — creates 4.33, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City attack 4.33 + Sheffield Utd defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 3.50

Sheffield Utd attack 0.00 + Manchester City defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 95%?"

Manchester City scores more
95%
level
5%
Sheffield Utd scores more
1%

Manchester City at 95% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 95% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
R. MahrezManchester CityManchester City · F
9.9

Match Events

43'
R. MahrezPenalty
58'
O. McBurnie← D. Jebbison
61'
R. Mahrez
66'
B. Sharp← J. Fleck
66'
R. Mahrez↳ J. Grealish
67'
C. Palmer← J. Grealish
68'
P. Foden← E. Haaland
74'
Oliver Norwood
75'
K. Phillips← İ. Gündoğan
75'
C. Basham← S. Berge
76'
I. Coulibaly← A. Ahmedhodžić
76'
J. Bogle← G. Baldock
81'
R. Lewis← Bernardo Silva

Possession

78%Manchester

Shots

14Manchester

Pass accuracy

59%Manchester

Statistics

ManchesterSheffield
Overview
78%Possession22%
14Total Shots4
11Corners1
5Fouls16
Shots
14Total Shots4
4On Target1
7Off Target3
3Blocked0
7Inside Box3
7Outside Box1
Passing
78%Possession22%
746Total Passes209
680Accurate Passes134
91%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
5Fouls16
0Yellow Cards1
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Manchester City vs Sheffield Utd

Manchester City beat Sheffield Utd 3-0 in League #45 on April 22, 2023.

Goals: R. Mahrez (43' pen, 61', 66').

Manchester City controlled possession (78%) and registered 14 shots to 4.

The match was played at Wembley Stadium in London.