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Sheffield Utd vs Leeds — Championship 2018

Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Leeds
Leeds
2/24/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 34Bramall Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Sheffield Utd37%
×Draw26%
Leeds37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sheffield Utd
1.34
Leeds
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 7 away

creates per match

Sheffield Utd
1.62
Leeds
1.63

allows per match

Sheffield Utd
1.05
Leeds
1.06

finishing

Sheffield Utd-0.31scores less
Leeds-0.06on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Utd ↓

Leeds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sheffield Utd or draw
63%
Sheffield Utd or Leeds
74%
Draw or Leeds
63%

Winning margin

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+
17%
Leeds wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals
74%
Sheffield Utd 2+ goals
39%
Sheffield Utd 3+ goals
15%
Leeds 1+ goals
74%
Leeds 2+ goals
39%
Leeds 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)
50%
Leeds (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Utd at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.05 · 16 matches

Leeds away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.06 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Utd attack 1.62 + Leeds defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.34

Leeds attack 1.63 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sheffield Utd scores more
37%
level
26%
Leeds scores more
37%

Sheffield Utd at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sheffield Utd vs Leeds

Leeds beat Sheffield Utd 3-1 in Championship on February 24, 2025.

The match was played at Bramall Lane in Sheffield.