Leeds 2–0 Sheffield Utd: Result & Stats

Leeds

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sheffield Utd

10/18/2024

Championship · Round 10Elland Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Leeds48%

×Draw27%

Sheffield Utd25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeedsExpected goals in this matchSheffield Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.92

Leeds

1.39

Sheffield Utd

0.92

Leeds creates 51% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 16 away

1.60

creates per match

1.34

0.49

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Leeds

1.60

Sheffield Utd

1.34

allows per match

Leeds

0.49

Sheffield Utd

1.17

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Leeds+0.28scores more

Sheffield Utd-0.03on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leeds ↓

Sheffield Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Leeds or draw

75%

Leeds or Sheffield Utd

73%

Draw or Sheffield Utd

52%

Winning margin

Leeds wins by 2+

23%

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Leeds 1+ goals

75%

Leeds 2+ goals

40%

Leeds 3+ goals

16%

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

60%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

23%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Leeds (draw refunded)

66%

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leeds at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.49 · 8 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.17 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leeds attack 1.60 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.39

Sheffield Utd attack 1.34 + Leeds defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Leeds scores more

48%

level

27%

Sheffield Utd scores more

25%

Leeds at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff