Sheffield Utd 0–1 Leeds: Result & Stats

Sheffield Utd

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Leeds

P. Bamford 88'

9/27/2020

Premier League · Round 3Bramall Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Sheffield Utd38%

×Draw24%

Leeds39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield UtdExpected goals in this matchLeeds

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.61

Sheffield Utd

1.58

Leeds

1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 26 away

1.33

creates per match

1.15

2.07

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Sheffield Utd

1.33

Leeds

1.15

allows per match

Sheffield Utd

2.07

Leeds

1.83

-0.44scores less than expected

finishing

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

Sheffield Utd-0.44scores less

Leeds-0.15scores less

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Utd ↓

Leeds →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Sheffield Utd or draw

61%

Sheffield Utd or Leeds

76%

Draw or Leeds

62%

Winning margin

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

18%

Leeds wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

79%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

47%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

21%

Leeds 1+ goals

80%

Leeds 2+ goals

48%

Leeds 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

49%

Leeds (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Utd at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.07 · 9 matches

Leeds away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.83 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Utd attack 1.33 + Leeds defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.58

Leeds attack 1.15 + Sheffield Utd defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sheffield Utd scores more

38%

level

24%

Leeds scores more

39%

Leeds at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Ramsdale

Sheffield Utd · G

8.5

Match Events

6'

Kalvin Phillips

46'

Rodrigo← T. Roberts

58'

John Lundstram

64'

O. Norwood← J. Lundstram

66'

I. Poveda-Ocampo← Hélder Costa

67'

George Baldock

74'

O. McBurnie← D. McGoldrick

74'

B. Sharp← O. Burke

88'

P. Bamford↳ J. Harrison

90+1'

E. Alioski← Rodrigo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheffieldLeeds

Overview

36%Possession64%

14Total Shots17

5Corners7

18Fouls4

Shots

14Total Shots17

4On Target9

5Off Target5

5Blocked3

9Inside Box9

5Outside Box8

Passing

36%Possession64%

327Total Passes578

232Accurate Passes470

71%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

7Saves4

Discipline

18Fouls4

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1