Sheffield Utd 3–1 Coventry: Result & Stats

Sheffield Utd

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Coventry

R. Brewster 62'

T. Campbell 30'

G. Hamer 19'

J. Rudoni 90+2'

3/28/2025

Championship · Round 39Bramall Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 42+ matches

Sheffield Utd43%

×Draw25%

Coventry32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield UtdExpected goals in this matchCoventry

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.26

Sheffield Utd

1.50

Coventry

1.26

Sheffield Utd creates 19% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 52 away

1.75

creates per match

1.51

1.01

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Sheffield Utd

1.75

Coventry

1.51

allows per match

Sheffield Utd

1.01

Coventry

1.24

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Sheffield Utd-0.13scores less

Coventry+0.01on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Utd ↓

Coventry →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Sheffield Utd or draw

68%

Sheffield Utd or Coventry

75%

Draw or Coventry

57%

Winning margin

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

21%

Coventry wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

78%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

44%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

19%

Coventry 1+ goals

72%

Coventry 2+ goals

36%

Coventry 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

57%

Coventry (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Utd at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.01 · 42 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.24 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Utd attack 1.75 + Coventry defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.50

Coventry attack 1.51 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sheffield Utd scores more

43%

level

25%

Coventry scores more

32%

Sheffield Utd at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

42

S. Peck

Sheffield Utd · M

7.5

Match Events

17'

Bobby Thomas

19'

G. Hamer

30'

T. Campbell↳ F. Seriki

38'

B. Collins← O. Dovin

62'

R. Brewster↳ B. Brereton

63'

J. Rudoni← V. Torp

65'

Ben Brereton Díaz

65'

Jamie Allen

69'

C. O'Hare← R. Brewster

70'

T. Cannon← T. Campbell

76'

B. Sheaf← J. Allen

77'

E. Simms← H. Wright

77'

J. Paterson← E. Mason-Clark

83'

A. Brooks← B. Brereton

88'

A. Gilchrist← F. Seriki

89'

S. McCallum← H. Choudhury

90+2'

J. Rudoni↳ L. Binks

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheffieldCoventry

Overview

41%Possession59%

16Total Shots11

1.64Expected Goals (xG)1.18

8Corners2

11Fouls9

Shots

16Total Shots11

6On Target4

3Off Target5

7Blocked2

12Inside Box6

4Outside Box5

Passing

41%Possession59%

365Total Passes517

285Accurate Passes445

78%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

-0.79Goals Prevented-0.79

Discipline

11Fouls9

1Yellow Cards2

4Offsides3

Championship: Sheffield Utd 3–1 Coventry

Sheffield Utd beat Coventry 3-1 in Championship on March 28, 2025.

Goals: G. Hamer (19'), T. Campbell (30'), R. Brewster (62'), J. Rudoni (90+2').

Coventry controlled possession (59%) and registered 11 shots to 16.

The match was played at Bramall Lane in Sheffield.

Sheffield Utd vs Coventry — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Sheffield Utd 3–1 Coventry