Sheffield Utd 3–1 Coventry: Result & Stats

Sheffield Utd

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Coventry

T. Doyle 71'

C. Clark 52'

J. McAtee 35'

V. Gyökeres 75'

12/26/2022

Championship · Round 24Bramall Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 44+ matches

Sheffield Utd42%

×Draw25%

Coventry32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield UtdExpected goals in this matchCoventry

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.25

Sheffield Utd

1.48

Coventry

1.25

Sheffield Utd creates 18% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 53 away

1.73

creates per match

1.49

1.01

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Sheffield Utd

1.73

Coventry

1.49

allows per match

Sheffield Utd

1.01

Coventry

1.24

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

+0.04on par

finishing

Sheffield Utd-0.14scores less

Coventry+0.04on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Utd ↓

Coventry →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Sheffield Utd or draw

68%

Sheffield Utd or Coventry

75%

Draw or Coventry

58%

Winning margin

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

21%

Coventry wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

77%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

43%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

19%

Coventry 1+ goals

71%

Coventry 2+ goals

36%

Coventry 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

57%

Coventry (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Utd at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.01 · 44 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.24 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Utd attack 1.73 + Coventry defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.48

Coventry attack 1.49 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sheffield Utd scores more

42%

level

25%

Coventry scores more

32%

Sheffield Utd at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

O. Norwood

Sheffield Utd · M

8.3

Match Events

7'

23'

35'

41'

52'

58'

59'

59'

F. Dabo← J. Burroughs

60'

Jake Bidwell

68'

Kasey Palmer

70'

T. Doyle← J. McAtee

70'

D. Jebbison← B. Sharp

71'

T. Doyle↳ M. Lowe

75'

V. Gyökeres↳ G. Hamer

77'

John Egan

77'

John Egan

79'

C. Basham← I. Ndiaye

85'

Fábio Tavares← J. Panzo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheffieldCoventry

Overview

45%Possession55%

8Total Shots11

2Corners7

10Fouls10

Shots

8Total Shots11

3On Target4

4Off Target2

1Blocked5

6Inside Box7

2Outside Box4

Passing

45%Possession55%

333Total Passes406

222Accurate Passes304

67%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

10Fouls10

2Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

0Offsides1