Coventry 2–2 Sheffield Utd: Result & Stats

Coventry

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Sheffield Utd

B. Thomas 80'

N. Bassette 22'

J. Rak-Sakyi 34'

T. Campbell 13'

11/23/2024

Championship · Round 16The Coventry Building Society Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 39+ matches

Coventry45%

×Draw26%

Sheffield Utd30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoventryExpected goals in this matchSheffield Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.17

Coventry

1.50

Sheffield Utd

1.17

Coventry creates 28% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 39 away

1.83

creates per match

1.36

0.97

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Coventry

1.83

Sheffield Utd

1.36

allows per match

Coventry

0.97

Sheffield Utd

1.18

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Coventry+0.15scores more

Sheffield Utd+0.10scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry ↓

Sheffield Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Coventry or draw

70%

Coventry or Sheffield Utd

74%

Draw or Sheffield Utd

55%

Winning margin

Coventry wins by 2+

22%

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Coventry 1+ goals

78%

Coventry 2+ goals

44%

Coventry 3+ goals

19%

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

69%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

33%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Coventry (draw refunded)

60%

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.97 · 49 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.18 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry attack 1.83 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sheffield Utd attack 1.36 + Coventry defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Coventry scores more

45%

level

26%

Sheffield Utd scores more

30%

Coventry at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

J. Rak-Sakyi

Sheffield Utd · M

8.2

Match Events

13'

T. Campbell↳ J. Rak-Sakyi

22'

N. Bassette↳ J. Eccles

34'

J. Rak-Sakyi↳ G. Hamer

44'

Anel Ahmedhodžić

45'

Norman Bassette

45+1'

J. Robinson← T. Campbell

46'

F. Seriki← J. Rak-Sakyi

58'

B. Thomas-Asante← N. Bassette

58'

T. Sakamoto← V. Torp

58'

E. Mason-Clark← J. Latibeaudiere

60'

Brandon Thomas-Asante

60'

Harrison Burrows

62'

S. McCallum← H. Burrows

72'

Josh Eccles

76'

R. Oné← C. OHare

77'

E. Simms← J. Eccles

77'

J. Shackleton← G. Hamer

79'

Sydie Peck

80'

B. Thomas↳ J. Rudoni

81'

Jack Rudoni

88'

J. Bidwell← J. Dasilva

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CoventrySheffield

Overview

68%Possession32%

20Total Shots7

2.32Expected Goals (xG)1.32

12Corners2

13Fouls6

Shots

20Total Shots7

6On Target2

8Off Target2

6Blocked3

15Inside Box6

5Outside Box1

Passing

68%Possession32%

573Total Passes288

501Accurate Passes213

87%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

0.29Goals Prevented0.29

Discipline

13Fouls6

4Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

4Offsides0

Championship: Coventry 2–2 Sheffield Utd

Coventry and Sheffield Utd drew 2-2 in Championship on November 23, 2024.

Goals: T. Campbell (13'), N. Bassette (22'), J. Rak-Sakyi (34'), B. Thomas (80').

Coventry controlled possession (68%) and registered 20 shots to 7.

The match was played at The Coventry Building Society Arena in Coventry, West Midlands.

Coventry vs Sheffield Utd — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Coventry 2–2 Sheffield Utd