Sheffield Utd 0–0 Bournemouth: Result & Stats

Sheffield Utd

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bournemouth

4/9/2022

Championship · Round 41Bramall Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Sheffield Utd40%

×Draw27%

Bournemouth33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield UtdExpected goals in this matchBournemouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.15

Sheffield Utd

1.30

Bournemouth

1.15

Sheffield Utd creates 13% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 50 away

1.69

creates per match

1.40

0.90

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Sheffield Utd

1.69

Bournemouth

1.40

allows per match

Sheffield Utd

0.90

Bournemouth

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sheffield Utd+0.00on par

Bournemouth+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Utd ↓

Bournemouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sheffield Utd or draw

67%

Sheffield Utd or Bournemouth

73%

Draw or Bournemouth

60%

Winning margin

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

18%

Bournemouth wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

73%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

37%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

14%

Bournemouth 1+ goals

68%

Bournemouth 2+ goals

32%

Bournemouth 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

55%

Bournemouth (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Utd at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.90 · 116 matches

Bournemouth away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.92 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Utd attack 1.69 + Bournemouth defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.30

Bournemouth attack 1.40 + Sheffield Utd defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sheffield Utd scores more

40%

level

27%

Bournemouth scores more

33%

Sheffield Utd at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

L. Kelly

Bournemouth · D

7.9

Match Events

24'

35'

71'

72'

74'

74'

J. Anthony← S. Dembélé

81'

C. Hourihane← S. Berge

89'

R. Brady← J. Zemura

90+3'

Lloyd Kelly

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheffieldBournemouth

Overview

50%Possession50%

10Total Shots6

7Corners4

18Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots6

2On Target2

5Off Target4

3Blocked0

7Inside Box3

3Outside Box3

Passing

50%Possession50%

379Total Passes385

266Accurate Passes283

70%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls14

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1