Bournemouth 2–1 Sheffield Utd: Result & Stats

Bournemouth

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sheffield Utd

P. Billing 65'

D. Solanke 62' (pen)

M. Gibbs-White 56'

10/2/2021

Championship · Round 11Vitality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Bournemouth44%

×Draw27%

Sheffield Utd30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BournemouthExpected goals in this matchSheffield Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.11

Bournemouth

1.41

Sheffield Utd

1.11

Bournemouth creates 27% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 116 away

1.75

creates per match

1.25

0.98

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Bournemouth

1.75

Sheffield Utd

1.25

allows per match

Bournemouth

0.98

Sheffield Utd

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bournemouth+0.00on par

Sheffield Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bournemouth ↓

Sheffield Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bournemouth or draw

70%

Bournemouth or Sheffield Utd

73%

Draw or Sheffield Utd

56%

Winning margin

Bournemouth wins by 2+

21%

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Bournemouth 1+ goals

76%

Bournemouth 2+ goals

41%

Bournemouth 3+ goals

17%

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

67%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

30%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bournemouth (draw refunded)

60%

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bournemouth at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.98 · 48 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.07 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bournemouth attack 1.75 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.41

Sheffield Utd attack 1.25 + Bournemouth defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bournemouth scores more

44%

level

27%

Sheffield Utd scores more

30%

Bournemouth at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bournemouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

P. Billing

Bournemouth · M

7.9

Match Events

7'

John Fleck

47'

Ben Pearson

49'

C. Basham← G. Baldock

55'

Adam Smith

55'

Ben Osborn

56'

M. Gibbs-White↳ B. Sharp

62'

D. SolankePenalty

65'

P. Billing↳ R. Christie

73'

L. Mousset← B. Sharp

73'

O. McBurnie← I. Ndiaye

80'

Jordan Zemura

86'

C. Mepham← P. Billing

88'

J. Lowe← R. Christie

90+5'

J. Stacey← D. Solanke

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BournemouthSheffield

Overview

41%Possession59%

11Total Shots8

4Corners7

13Fouls9

Shots

11Total Shots8

7On Target1

2Off Target4

2Blocked3

8Inside Box5

3Outside Box3

Passing

41%Possession59%

304Total Passes426

196Accurate Passes297

64%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls9

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides3