Sheffield Utd 2–1 Bournemouth: Result & Stats

Sheffield Utd

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Bournemouth

J. Lundstram 84'

B. Sharp 45+2'

C. Wilson 13'

2/9/2020

Premier League · Round 26Bramall Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Sheffield Utd33%

×Draw22%

Bournemouth45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield UtdExpected goals in this matchBournemouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.85

Sheffield Utd

1.56

Bournemouth

1.85

Bournemouth creates 19% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 35 away

1.28

creates per match

1.56

2.15

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Sheffield Utd

1.28

Bournemouth

1.56

allows per match

Sheffield Utd

2.15

Bournemouth

1.83

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

Sheffield Utd-0.38scores less

Bournemouth-0.19scores less

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Utd ↓

Bournemouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Sheffield Utd or draw

55%

Sheffield Utd or Bournemouth

78%

Draw or Bournemouth

67%

Winning margin

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

16%

Bournemouth wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

79%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

46%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

21%

Bournemouth 1+ goals

84%

Bournemouth 2+ goals

55%

Bournemouth 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

42%

Bournemouth (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Utd at home — creates 1.28, concedes 2.15 · 10 matches

Bournemouth away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.83 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Utd attack 1.28 + Bournemouth defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.56

Bournemouth attack 1.56 + Sheffield Utd defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sheffield Utd scores more

33%

level

22%

Bournemouth scores more

45%

Bournemouth at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bournemouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

B. Sharp

Sheffield Utd · F

7.7

Match Events

13'

39'

45+2'

53'

61'

J. Lundstram← S. Berge

72'

J. King← H. Wilson

74'

L. Mousset← B. Sharp

84'

J. Stanislas← R. Fraser

84'

J. Lundstram↳ L. Mousset

88'

D. Solanke← A. Surman

89'

Lys Mousset

90'

Callum Wilson

90'

Simon Francis

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheffieldBournemouth

Overview

54%Possession46%

16Total Shots10

8Corners4

10Fouls8

Shots

16Total Shots10

6On Target2

4Off Target7

6Blocked1

14Inside Box8

2Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

449Total Passes391

320Accurate Passes283

71%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls8

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1