Sheffield Utd 3–3 Blackpool: Result & Stats

Sheffield Utd

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Blackpool

O. Norwood 90+8'

I. Ndiaye 23'

J. McAtee 8'

K. Dougall 51'

J. Yates 42', 30'

10/15/2022

Championship · Round 15Bramall Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Sheffield Utd54%

×Draw25%

Blackpool21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield UtdExpected goals in this matchBlackpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.91

Sheffield Utd

1.60

Blackpool

0.91

Sheffield Utd creates 76% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 52 away

1.69

creates per match

0.92

0.90

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Sheffield Utd

1.69

Blackpool

0.92

allows per match

Sheffield Utd

0.90

Blackpool

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sheffield Utd+0.00on par

Blackpool+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Utd ↓

Blackpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sheffield Utd or draw

79%

Sheffield Utd or Blackpool

75%

Draw or Blackpool

46%

Winning margin

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

28%

Blackpool wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

80%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

47%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

22%

Blackpool 1+ goals

60%

Blackpool 2+ goals

23%

Blackpool 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

71%

Blackpool (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Utd at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.90 · 116 matches

Blackpool away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.52 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Utd attack 1.69 + Blackpool defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.60

Blackpool attack 0.92 + Sheffield Utd defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sheffield Utd scores more

54%

level

25%

Blackpool scores more

21%

Sheffield Utd at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

O. Norwood

Sheffield Utd · M

8.9

Match Events

-5'

8'

23'

30'

42'

45+1'

51'

55'

56'

64'

R. Brewster← B. Sharp

64'

A. Ahmedhodžić← J. McAtee

64'

O. McBurnie← B. Osborn

66'

Dominic Thompson

72'

Oliver Norwood

72'

Anel Ahmedhodžić

76'

C. Wright← L. Bridcutt

77'

78'

78'

81'

81'

83'

R. Williams← S. Lavery

84'

R. Khadra← G. Baldock

85'

C. Hamilton← G. Madine

90+9'

Wes Foderingham

90+8'

O. Norwood

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheffieldBlackpool

Overview

62%Possession38%

20Total Shots10

14Corners4

13Fouls10

Shots

20Total Shots10

9On Target3

8Off Target4

3Blocked3

17Inside Box6

3Outside Box4

Passing

62%Possession38%

421Total Passes268

308Accurate Passes157

73%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

13Fouls10

5Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards3

2Offsides2