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SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shanghai Shenhua — Super League 2026

SHANGHAI SIPG
SHANGHAI SIPG
Preview
11:35
Shanghai Shenhua
Shanghai Shenhua
7/25/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 20Pudong Football Stadium
Big match
49%
SHANGHAI SIPG
model favours
49%21%30%

Both teams score in 94% of SHANGHAI SIPG’s matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
69%
over 2.5 goals
68%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

SHANGHAI SIPG49%
×Draw21%
Shanghai Shenhua30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SHANGHAI SIPG
2.04
Shanghai Shenhua
1.55

SHANGHAI SIPG creates 32% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 11 away

creates per match

SHANGHAI SIPG
2.75
Shanghai Shenhua
1.92

allows per match

SHANGHAI SIPG
1.19
Shanghai Shenhua
1.32

finishing

SHANGHAI SIPG-0.10scores less
Shanghai Shenhua-0.01on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SHANGHAI SIPG ↓

Shanghai Shenhua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

SHANGHAI SIPG or draw
70%
SHANGHAI SIPG or Shanghai Shenhua
79%
Draw or Shanghai Shenhua
51%

Winning margin

SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+
28%
Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals
87%
SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals
60%
SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals
33%
Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals
79%
Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals
46%
Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)
62%
Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SHANGHAI SIPG at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.19 · 17 matches

Shanghai Shenhua away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.32 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 2.75 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 2.04

Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.92 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

SHANGHAI SIPG scores more
49%
level
21%
Shanghai Shenhua scores more
30%

SHANGHAI SIPG at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "SHANGHAI SIPG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • SHANGHAI SIPG have scored in 12 games running
  • 72% of SHANGHAI SIPG’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (72% and 65% over 2.5)
  • SHANGHAI SIPG score first in only 33% of matches
  • Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings
  • Style contrast — SHANGHAI SIPG play Possession-dominant, Shanghai Shenhua Attack-heavy

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
SHANGHAI SIPG
Possession-dominant
Shanghai Shenhua
Attack-heavy
59%PossessionBiggest gap53%
84%Pass accuracy81%
15.2Shots16.6
2.17xG2.32
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
SHANGHAI SIPGShanghai Shenhua

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
SHANGHAI SIPG
4
Draws
3
Shanghai Shenhua
Avg goals: 3.1BTTS: 80%
0–12–12–31–13–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
SIPG
DDLWW
Shenhua
WLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SHANGHAI SIPG face Shanghai Shenhua (Super League)

Super League returns with SHANGHAI SIPG hosting Shanghai Shenhua. Match starts July 25, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

SHANGHAI SIPG host Shanghai Shenhua at Pudong Football Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.