SHANGHAI SIPG 2–3 Shanghai Shenhua: Result & Stats

SHANGHAI SIPG

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Shanghai Shenhua

Gustavo 59'

Gabrielzinho 46'

André Luís 66', 50', 44'

6/22/2025

FA Cup · 4th RoundSAIC Motor Pudong Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

SHANGHAI SIPG29%

×Draw24%

Shanghai Shenhua47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SHANGHAI SIPGExpected goals in this matchShanghai Shenhua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.69

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.26

Shanghai Shenhua

1.69

Shanghai Shenhua creates 34% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 18 away

1.91

creates per match

2.11

1.27

allows per match

0.61

creates per match

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.91

Shanghai Shenhua

2.11

allows per match

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.27

Shanghai Shenhua

0.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SHANGHAI SIPG+0.00on par

Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SHANGHAI SIPG ↓

Shanghai Shenhua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

SHANGHAI SIPG or draw

53%

SHANGHAI SIPG or Shanghai Shenhua

76%

Draw or Shanghai Shenhua

71%

Winning margin

SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+

12%

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals

72%

SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals

36%

SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals

13%

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals

82%

Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals

50%

Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)

38%

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SHANGHAI SIPG at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Shanghai Shenhua away — creates 2.11, concedes 0.61 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.91 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 1.26

Shanghai Shenhua attack 2.11 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

SHANGHAI SIPG scores more

29%

level

24%

Shanghai Shenhua scores more

47%

Shanghai Shenhua at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

J. Teixeira

44'

André Luís

45+2'

Gao Tianyi

46'

Gabrielzinho

49'

Mateus Vital

50'

André Luís

59'

Gustavo

66'

André Luís

90+4'

Matheus Jussa

90+8'

Li Shuai

SHANGHAI

Shanghai

Manager: Kevin Vincent Muscat

Manager: Leonid Slutskiy