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SHANGHAI SIPG vs Shanghai Shenhua — Super League 2026

SHANGHAI SIPG
SHANGHAI SIPG
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Shanghai Shenhua
Shanghai Shenhua
Liu Ruofan 5'
Yu Hanchao 82'
4/6/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 5Pudong Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

SHANGHAI SIPG49%
×Draw21%
Shanghai Shenhua30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SHANGHAI SIPG
2.04
Shanghai Shenhua
1.55

SHANGHAI SIPG creates 32% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 11 away

creates per match

SHANGHAI SIPG
2.75
Shanghai Shenhua
1.92

allows per match

SHANGHAI SIPG
1.19
Shanghai Shenhua
1.32

finishing

SHANGHAI SIPG-0.10scores less
Shanghai Shenhua-0.01on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SHANGHAI SIPG ↓

Shanghai Shenhua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

SHANGHAI SIPG or draw
70%
SHANGHAI SIPG or Shanghai Shenhua
79%
Draw or Shanghai Shenhua
51%

Winning margin

SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+
28%
Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals
87%
SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals
60%
SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals
33%
Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals
79%
Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals
46%
Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)
62%
Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SHANGHAI SIPG at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.19 · 17 matches

Shanghai Shenhua away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.32 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 2.75 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 2.04

Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.92 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

SHANGHAI SIPG scores more
49%
level
21%
Shanghai Shenhua scores more
30%

SHANGHAI SIPG at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "SHANGHAI SIPG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
Liu RuofanSHANGHAI SIPGSHANGHAI SIPG · M
8.3

Match Events

5'
Liu Ruofan
34'
André Luis
62'
Gao Tianyi← Yang Haoyu
63'
X. Li← Liu Ruofan
69'
Shuai Li
77'
Li Shenglong← Gabrielzinho
78'
Li Ke
81'
Yu Hanchao← L. Ke
82'
Yu Hanchao↳ Chan Shinichi
85'
Wang Shenchao← Ming Tian
85'
Zhang Linpeng← Gustavo
85'
Xu Haoyang← Chan Shinichi
90+7'
Junling Yan
90+2'
Zhen Wei
90+2'
Shuai Li
90+2'
Shuai Li

Possession

47%SHANGHAI

Shots

10SHANGHAI

Pass accuracy

50%SHANGHAI

Statistics

SHANGHAIShanghai
Overview
47%Possession53%
10Total Shots15
0.98Expected Goals (xG)1.50
8Corners10
14Fouls11
Shots
10Total Shots15
2On Target3
6Off Target7
2Blocked5
8Inside Box10
2Outside Box5
Passing
47%Possession53%
325Total Passes359
261Accurate Passes286
80%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
14Fouls11
4Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
2Offsides4

Super League: SHANGHAI SIPG 1–1 Shanghai Shenhua

SHANGHAI SIPG and Shanghai Shenhua drew 1-1 in Super League on April 6, 2025.

Goals: Liu Ruofan (5'), Yu Hanchao (82').

Shanghai Shenhua controlled possession (53%) and registered 15 shots to 10.

The match was played at Pudong Football Stadium in Shanghai.