Shanghai Shenhua 1–0 SHANGHAI SIPG: Result & Stats

Shanghai Shenhua

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

SHANGHAI SIPG

Rafael Ratao 52'

4/11/2026

Super League · Round 5Shanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Shanghai Shenhua55%

×Draw21%

SHANGHAI SIPG23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shanghai ShenhuaExpected goals in this matchSHANGHAI SIPG

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.26

Shanghai Shenhua

2.05

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.26

Shanghai Shenhua creates 63% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 17 away

2.59

creates per match

1.59

0.92

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Shanghai Shenhua

2.59

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.59

allows per match

Shanghai Shenhua

0.92

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.52

-0.03on par

finishing

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

Shanghai Shenhua-0.03on par

SHANGHAI SIPG+0.23scores more

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenhua ↓

SHANGHAI SIPG →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenhua or draw

77%

Shanghai Shenhua or SHANGHAI SIPG

79%

Draw or SHANGHAI SIPG

45%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+

33%

SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals

87%

Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals

61%

Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals

33%

SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals

72%

SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals

36%

SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)

70%

SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenhua at home — creates 2.59, concedes 0.92 · 16 matches

SHANGHAI SIPG away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.52 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenhua attack 2.59 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 2.05

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.59 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Shanghai Shenhua scores more

55%

level

21%

SHANGHAI SIPG scores more

23%

Shanghai Shenhua at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

W. Manafa

Shanghai Shenhua · D

8.0

Match Events

25'

Lu Yongtao

52'

Rafael Ratao↳ W. Manafa

57'

Liu Zhurun← Gabrielzinho

64'

Liu Chengyu← M. Gueye

64'

Yang Haoyu← Gao Tianyi

64'

Yang Shiyuan← Lu Yongtao

65'

69'

69'

70'

78'

Fu Huan←

88'

Xie Pengfei← J. Teixeira

88'

Yang Zexiang← W. Manafa

90+6'

Zexiang Yang

90+1'

Shinichi Chan

90+9'

Shuai Li

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShanghaiSHANGHAI

Overview

43%Possession57%

16Total Shots9

1.66Expected Goals (xG)0.18

7Corners4

18Fouls12

Shots

16Total Shots9

7On Target2

5Off Target5

4Blocked2

9Inside Box4

7Outside Box5

Passing

43%Possession57%

338Total Passes441

258Accurate Passes362

76%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

18Fouls12

3Yellow Cards3

3Offsides0

Match Recap: Shanghai Shenhua vs SHANGHAI SIPG

Shanghai Shenhua beat SHANGHAI SIPG 1-0 in Super League on April 11, 2026.

Goals: Rafael Ratao (52').

SHANGHAI SIPG controlled possession (57%) and registered 9 shots to 16.

The match was played at Shanghai Stadium in Shanghai.

Shanghai Shenhua vs SHANGHAI SIPG — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Shanghai Shenhua vs SHANGHAI SIPG