SHANGHAI SIPG 8–1 Nantong Zhiyun: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SHANGHAI SIPGExpected goals in this matchNantong Zhiyun

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.11

SHANGHAI SIPG

2.06

Nantong Zhiyun

1.11

SHANGHAI SIPG creates 86% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 6 away

2.74

creates per match

0.92

1.31

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

SHANGHAI SIPG

2.74

Nantong Zhiyun

0.92

allows per match

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.31

Nantong Zhiyun

1.37

+0.03on par

finishing

+0.58scores more than expected

finishing

SHANGHAI SIPG+0.03on par

Nantong Zhiyun+0.58scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SHANGHAI SIPG ↓

Nantong Zhiyun →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

SHANGHAI SIPG or draw

80%

SHANGHAI SIPG or Nantong Zhiyun

79%

Draw or Nantong Zhiyun

41%

Winning margin

SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+

36%

Nantong Zhiyun wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals

87%

SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals

61%

SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals

34%

Nantong Zhiyun 1+ goals

67%

Nantong Zhiyun 2+ goals

30%

Nantong Zhiyun 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)

75%

Nantong Zhiyun (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SHANGHAI SIPG at home — creates 2.74, concedes 1.31 · 30 matches

Nantong Zhiyun away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.37 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 2.74 + Nantong Zhiyun defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 2.06

Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.92 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

SHANGHAI SIPG scores more

59%

level

21%

Nantong Zhiyun scores more

20%

SHANGHAI SIPG at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "SHANGHAI SIPG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Oscar

SHANGHAI SIPG · M

9.5

Match Events

6'

Gustavo

11'

Shaowen Liang

14'

Gustavo↳ Léo Cittadini

38'

Matheus Jussa

39'

Matheus Jussa↳ Léo Cittadini

42'

M. Vargas↳ Wu Lei

46'

Song Haoyu← Wei Lai

46'

Jia Boyan← J. Godínez

51'

Wu Lei

55'

Zheng Haoqian↳ Jia Boyan

62'

Feng Jin← M. Vargas

65'

Lu Yongtao← Yang Mingyang

65'

Luo Xin← Farley Rosa

67'

Li Ang← Wei Zhen

68'

Xu Xin← Matheus Jussa

79'

Yang Shiyuan← Léo Cittadini

79'

Lü Wenjun← Gustavo

79'

Xu Xin↳ Gustavo

86'

Zhang Yuye← Zheng Haoqian

88'

Feng Jin

90'

Oscar↳ Wu Lei

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SHANGHAINantong

Overview

66%Possession34%

26Total Shots8

4.05Expected Goals (xG)1.08

2Corners3

9Fouls7

Shots

26Total Shots8

11On Target1

11Off Target2

4Blocked5

17Inside Box4

9Outside Box4

Passing

66%Possession34%

481Total Passes254

415Accurate Passes179

86%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls7

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides4