SHANGHAI SIPG 2–1 Nantong Zhiyun: Result & Stats

SHANGHAI SIPG

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Nantong Zhiyun

Oscar 77' (pen), 53' (pen)

R. Castillo 8'

6/9/2023

Super League · Round 12SAIC Motor Pudong Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

SHANGHAI SIPG59%

×Draw21%

Nantong Zhiyun20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SHANGHAI SIPGExpected goals in this matchNantong Zhiyun

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.11

SHANGHAI SIPG

2.06

Nantong Zhiyun

1.11

SHANGHAI SIPG creates 86% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 6 away

2.74

creates per match

0.92

1.31

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

SHANGHAI SIPG

2.74

Nantong Zhiyun

0.92

allows per match

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.31

Nantong Zhiyun

1.37

+0.03on par

finishing

+0.58scores more than expected

finishing

SHANGHAI SIPG+0.03on par

Nantong Zhiyun+0.58scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SHANGHAI SIPG ↓

Nantong Zhiyun →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

SHANGHAI SIPG or draw

80%

SHANGHAI SIPG or Nantong Zhiyun

79%

Draw or Nantong Zhiyun

41%

Winning margin

SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+

36%

Nantong Zhiyun wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals

87%

SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals

61%

SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals

34%

Nantong Zhiyun 1+ goals

67%

Nantong Zhiyun 2+ goals

30%

Nantong Zhiyun 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)

75%

Nantong Zhiyun (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SHANGHAI SIPG at home — creates 2.74, concedes 1.31 · 30 matches

Nantong Zhiyun away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.37 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 2.74 + Nantong Zhiyun defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 2.06

Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.92 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

SHANGHAI SIPG scores more

59%

level

21%

Nantong Zhiyun scores more

20%

SHANGHAI SIPG at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "SHANGHAI SIPG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Oscar

SHANGHAI SIPG · M

9.5

Match Events

8'

24'

35'

45+3'

46'

M. Pink← Paulinho

46'

Wei Zhen← Cai Huikang

47'

Mirahmetjan Muzepper

52'

OscarPenalty confirmed

52'

Kang Cao

53'

OscarPenalty

58'

Jiang Zilei← Zheng Haoqian

62'

Wang Song← Lucas Morelatto

71'

M. Vargas← I. Kallon

77'

OscarPenalty

84'

Ma Sheng← Liu Huan

84'

Kamiran Halimurat← Yeljan Shinar

86'

Lü Wenjun← Mirahmetjan Muzepper

86'

Yang Shiyuan← Li Shuai

89'

Ma Sheng

90+7'

Bressan

90+3'

Rubilio Castillo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SHANGHAINantong

Overview

64%Possession36%

16Total Shots5

7Corners0

13Fouls16

Shots

16Total Shots5

5On Target1

6Off Target4

5Blocked0

8Inside Box3

8Outside Box2

Passing

64%Possession36%

521Total Passes302

444Accurate Passes220

85%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls16

2Yellow Cards6

2Offsides0