Nantong Zhiyun 0–1 SHANGHAI SIPG: Result & Stats

Nantong Zhiyun

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

SHANGHAI SIPG

Wu Lei 29'

9/29/2023

Super League · Round 27Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Nantong Zhiyun41%

×Draw25%

SHANGHAI SIPG35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nantong ZhiyunExpected goals in this matchSHANGHAI SIPG

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.41

Nantong Zhiyun

1.54

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 33 away

1.54

creates per match

1.72

1.10

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Nantong Zhiyun

1.54

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.72

allows per match

Nantong Zhiyun

1.10

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.55

-0.54scores less than expected

finishing

+0.37scores more than expected

finishing

Nantong Zhiyun-0.54scores less

SHANGHAI SIPG+0.37scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nantong Zhiyun ↓

SHANGHAI SIPG →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Nantong Zhiyun or draw

65%

Nantong Zhiyun or SHANGHAI SIPG

75%

Draw or SHANGHAI SIPG

59%

Winning margin

Nantong Zhiyun wins by 2+

20%

SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Nantong Zhiyun 1+ goals

79%

Nantong Zhiyun 2+ goals

45%

Nantong Zhiyun 3+ goals

20%

SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals

76%

SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals

41%

SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Nantong Zhiyun (draw refunded)

54%

SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nantong Zhiyun at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.10 · 6 matches

SHANGHAI SIPG away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.55 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nantong Zhiyun attack 1.54 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.54

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.72 + Nantong Zhiyun defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Nantong Zhiyun scores more

41%

level

25%

SHANGHAI SIPG scores more

35%

Nantong Zhiyun at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Nantong Zhiyun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Wu Lei

SHANGHAI SIPG · F

7.9

Match Events

9'

Shenchao Wang

29'

Wu Lei↳ Li Ang

33'

Jiang Zilei← Wei Lai

58'

Lucas João

58'

Wang Song← Cao Kang

59'

Yang Shiyuan← Lucas João

60'

Romario Baldé

72'

D. Puclin← R. Castillo

72'

Ruan Yang← Zheng Haoqian

74'

Cai Huikang← Xu Xin

86'

Mirahmetjan Muzepper← M. Vargas

87'

Ang Li

87'

Lu Wenjun← I. Kallon

87'

Yu Hai← Li Ang

90+5'

OscarGoal cancelled

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NantongSHANGHAI

Overview

46%Possession54%

10Total Shots24

0.47Expected Goals (xG)2.79

4Corners9

12Fouls13

Shots

10Total Shots24

1On Target5

5Off Target10

4Blocked9

5Inside Box21

5Outside Box3

Passing

46%Possession54%

325Total Passes382

260Accurate Passes315

80%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2