SHANGHAI SIPG 3–0 Hangzhou Greentown

SHANGHAI SIPG

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hangzhou Greentown

10/31/2025

Super League · Round 29Pudong Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

SHANGHAI SIPG47%

×Draw22%

Hangzhou Greentown31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SHANGHAI SIPGExpected goals in this matchHangzhou Greentown

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.54

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.96

Hangzhou Greentown

1.54

SHANGHAI SIPG creates 27% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

2.39

creates per match

1.77

1.32

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

SHANGHAI SIPG

2.39

Hangzhou Greentown

1.77

allows per match

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.32

Hangzhou Greentown

1.52

-0.09on par

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

SHANGHAI SIPG-0.09on par

Hangzhou Greentown+0.03on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SHANGHAI SIPG ↓

Hangzhou Greentown →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

SHANGHAI SIPG or draw

69%

SHANGHAI SIPG or Hangzhou Greentown

78%

Draw or Hangzhou Greentown

53%

Winning margin

SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+

27%

Hangzhou Greentown wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals

86%

SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals

58%

SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals

31%

Hangzhou Greentown 1+ goals

79%

Hangzhou Greentown 2+ goals

45%

Hangzhou Greentown 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)

61%

Hangzhou Greentown (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SHANGHAI SIPG at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.32 · 10 matches

Hangzhou Greentown away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.52 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 2.39 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.96

Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.77 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

SHANGHAI SIPG scores more

47%

level

22%

Hangzhou Greentown scores more

31%

SHANGHAI SIPG at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "SHANGHAI SIPG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff