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Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG — Super League 2026

Hangzhou Greentown
Hangzhou Greentown
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
SHANGHAI SIPG
SHANGHAI SIPG
F. Andrijasevic 90'
Tao Qianglong 80'
Leonardo 51'
Gabrielzinho 45'
6/14/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 14Huizhou Olympic Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Hangzhou Greentown38%
×Draw22%
SHANGHAI SIPG41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hangzhou Greentown
1.81
SHANGHAI SIPG
1.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Hangzhou Greentown
2.29
SHANGHAI SIPG
2.20

allows per match

Hangzhou Greentown
1.56
SHANGHAI SIPG
1.32

finishing

Hangzhou Greentown-0.29scores less
SHANGHAI SIPG+0.47scores more

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hangzhou Greentown ↓

SHANGHAI SIPG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Hangzhou Greentown or draw
59%
Hangzhou Greentown or SHANGHAI SIPG
78%
Draw or SHANGHAI SIPG
62%

Winning margin

Hangzhou Greentown wins by 2+
20%
SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Hangzhou Greentown 1+ goals
84%
Hangzhou Greentown 2+ goals
54%
Hangzhou Greentown 3+ goals
27%
SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals
85%
SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals
56%
SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Hangzhou Greentown (draw refunded)
48%
SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hangzhou Greentown at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.56 · 7 matches

SHANGHAI SIPG away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.32 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hangzhou Greentown attack 2.29 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.81

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 2.20 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hangzhou Greentown scores more
38%
level
22%
SHANGHAI SIPG scores more
41%

SHANGHAI SIPG at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "SHANGHAI SIPG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30
GabrielzinhoSHANGHAI SIPGSHANGHAI SIPG · M
8.7

Match Events

20'
Tong Lei
45'
Gabrielzinho
46'
Yue Xin← Leung Nok-Hang
51'
Leonardo↳ Gabrielzinho
54'
Gabrielzinho
56'
D. Owusu-Sekyere← Tong Lei
61'
Wang Shenchao← Ming Tian
61'
Meng Jingchao← Xu Xin
69'
Kuai Jiwen← Leonardo
74'
Tao Qianglong← Y. Wang
74'
Zhang Jiaqi← A. N'Doumbou
80'
Wei Zhen← Feng Jing
80'
X. Li← Zhang Linpeng
80'
Tao Qianglong↳ D. Owusu-Sekyere
81'
Shuai Li
90+4'
Tixiang Li
90+3'
Franko AndrijaševićGoal cancelled
90+9'
Wang Yang← Wang Shiqin
90'
F. Andrijasevic↳ D. Owusu-Sekyere

Possession

42%Hangzhou

Shots

12Hangzhou

Pass accuracy

47%Hangzhou

Statistics

HangzhouSHANGHAI
Overview
42%Possession58%
12Total Shots13
1.87Expected Goals (xG)2.76
5Corners5
9Fouls11
Shots
12Total Shots13
6On Target6
3Off Target6
3Blocked1
5Inside Box12
7Outside Box1
Passing
42%Possession58%
347Total Passes484
265Accurate Passes409
76%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls11
2Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

Super League: Hangzhou Greentown 2–2 SHANGHAI SIPG

Hangzhou Greentown and SHANGHAI SIPG drew 2-2 in Super League on June 14, 2025.

Goals: Gabrielzinho (45'), Leonardo (51'), Tao Qianglong (80'), F. Andrijasevic (90').

SHANGHAI SIPG controlled possession (58%) and registered 13 shots to 12.

The match was played at Huizhou Olympic Stadium in Huizhou.