SHANGHAI SIPG 3–1 Hangzhou Greentown

SHANGHAI SIPG

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Hangzhou Greentown

Wu Lei 82', 67', 19'

Leonardo 28'

6/29/2024

Super League · Round 17SAIC Motor Pudong Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

SHANGHAI SIPG47%

×Draw22%

Hangzhou Greentown31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SHANGHAI SIPGExpected goals in this matchHangzhou Greentown

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.54

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.96

Hangzhou Greentown

1.54

SHANGHAI SIPG creates 27% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

2.39

creates per match

1.77

1.32

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

SHANGHAI SIPG

2.39

Hangzhou Greentown

1.77

allows per match

SHANGHAI SIPG

1.32

Hangzhou Greentown

1.52

-0.09on par

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

SHANGHAI SIPG-0.09on par

Hangzhou Greentown+0.03on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SHANGHAI SIPG ↓

Hangzhou Greentown →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

SHANGHAI SIPG or draw

69%

SHANGHAI SIPG or Hangzhou Greentown

78%

Draw or Hangzhou Greentown

53%

Winning margin

SHANGHAI SIPG wins by 2+

27%

Hangzhou Greentown wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

SHANGHAI SIPG 1+ goals

86%

SHANGHAI SIPG 2+ goals

58%

SHANGHAI SIPG 3+ goals

31%

Hangzhou Greentown 1+ goals

79%

Hangzhou Greentown 2+ goals

45%

Hangzhou Greentown 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

SHANGHAI SIPG (draw refunded)

61%

Hangzhou Greentown (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SHANGHAI SIPG at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.32 · 10 matches

Hangzhou Greentown away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.52 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SHANGHAI SIPG attack 2.39 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.96

Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.77 + SHANGHAI SIPG defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

SHANGHAI SIPG scores more

47%

level

22%

Hangzhou Greentown scores more

31%

SHANGHAI SIPG at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "SHANGHAI SIPG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Wu Lei

SHANGHAI SIPG · M

9.6

Match Events

6'

Lucas Possignolo

14'

Cheng Jin← Qian Jiegei

19'

Wu Lei↳ M. Vargas

28'

Leonardo↳ Yue Xin

30'

Matheus Jussa

46'

Sun Guowen← Yue Xin

46'

Wang Dongsheng← Dong Yu

58'

Deabeas Owusu-SekyerePenalty cancelled

61'

Bao Shimeng← Fu Huan

62'

Dongsheng Wang

67'

Wu Lei↳ Gustavo

70'

Yao Junsheng← J. Kouassi

76'

Feng Jin← Gustavo

78'

Leung Nok Hang← Liu Haofan

82'

Wu Lei↳ M. Vargas

87'

87'

90+7'

90+7'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SHANGHAIHangzhou

Overview

51%Possession49%

17Total Shots16

9Corners3

13Fouls12

Shots

17Total Shots16

13On Target5

3Off Target7

1Blocked4

16Inside Box9

1Outside Box7

Passing

51%Possession49%

403Total Passes391

326Accurate Passes313

81%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves10

Discipline

13Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

6Offsides4

Match Recap: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown

SHANGHAI SIPG beat Hangzhou Greentown 3-1 in Super League on June 29, 2024.

Goals: Wu Lei (19', 67', 82'), Leonardo (28').

SHANGHAI SIPG controlled possession (51%) and registered 17 shots to 16.

The match was played at SAIC Motor Pudong Arena in Shanghai.

SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: SHANGHAI SIPG vs Hangzhou Greentown