Shanghai Shenxin 0–3 Shenzhen Ruby FC

Shanghai Shenxin

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Shenzhen Ruby FC

H. Preciado 56' (pen), 20'

F. Ohandza 33'

10/28/2018

League One · Round 29Jinshan Soccer Stadium (Shanghai)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Shanghai Shenxin27%

×Draw25%

Shenzhen Ruby FC48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shanghai ShenxinExpected goals in this matchShenzhen Ruby FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.61

Shanghai Shenxin

1.13

Shenzhen Ruby FC

1.61

Shenzhen Ruby FC creates 42% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 13 away

1.17

creates per match

1.23

2.00

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Shanghai Shenxin

1.17

Shenzhen Ruby FC

1.23

allows per match

Shanghai Shenxin

2.00

Shenzhen Ruby FC

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shanghai Shenxin+0.00on par

Shenzhen Ruby FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenxin ↓

Shenzhen Ruby FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenxin or draw

52%

Shanghai Shenxin or Shenzhen Ruby FC

75%

Draw or Shenzhen Ruby FC

73%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenxin wins by 2+

10%

Shenzhen Ruby FC wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenxin 1+ goals

68%

Shanghai Shenxin 2+ goals

31%

Shanghai Shenxin 3+ goals

11%

Shenzhen Ruby FC 1+ goals

80%

Shenzhen Ruby FC 2+ goals

48%

Shenzhen Ruby FC 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenxin (draw refunded)

36%

Shenzhen Ruby FC (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenxin at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.00 · 29 matches

Shenzhen Ruby FC away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenxin attack 1.17 + Shenzhen Ruby FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.13

Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.23 + Shanghai Shenxin defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Shanghai Shenxin scores more

27%

level

25%

Shenzhen Ruby FC scores more

48%

Shenzhen Ruby FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Shenzhen Ruby FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

H. Preciado

33'

F. Ohandza

56'

H. PreciadoPenalty

63'

Pan Chaoran← Zhang Yifeng

84'

Li Jinqing← Ye Chugui

87'

Zhao Zuojun← Xu Junmin

89'

Lü Haidong← Xu Yang

90'

Wang Tong← Ge Zhen

Shanghai

Shenzhen

16

Yajun

4

Wei

15

▼

Zhen

29

Dalong

30

Min

6

▼

Yang

39

Chao

8

▼

Chugui

11

Yuan

10

⚽

Ohandza

9

⚽2

Preciado

27

Wei

5

Jiajie

4

▼

14

6

11

24

20

29

▼

Junmin

19

Owoeri

17

Wentao

Manager: Zhu Jiong

63'▲Pan Chaoran←▼Zhang Yifeng

87'▲Zhao Zuojun←▼Xu Junmin

Shanghai Shenxin substitutes

7Chaoran3Zuojun2Hongtao9Jingbin21Shiming22Xiang23Hao

Manager: López Caro

84'▲Li Jinqing←▼Ye Chugui

89'▲Lü Haidong←▼Xu Yang

90'▲Wang Tong←▼Ge Zhen

Shenzhen Ruby FC substitutes

22Jinqing3Haidong2Tong1Zhen12Chengkuai18Yu26Fujun