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Shanghai Shenxin vs Shenzhen Ruby FC — League One 2026

Shanghai Shenxin
Shanghai Shenxin
FT
1 – 3
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Shenzhen Ruby FC
6/25/2017League OneLeague One · Round 15Jinshan Soccer Stadium (Shanghai)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Shanghai Shenxin25%
×Draw24%
Shenzhen Ruby FC51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shanghai Shenxin
1.12
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.69

Shenzhen Ruby FC creates 51% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 14 away

creates per match

Shanghai Shenxin
1.17
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.36

allows per match

Shanghai Shenxin
2.03
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.07

finishing

Shanghai Shenxin+0.00on par
Shenzhen Ruby FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenxin ↓

Shenzhen Ruby FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenxin or draw
49%
Shanghai Shenxin or Shenzhen Ruby FC
76%
Draw or Shenzhen Ruby FC
75%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenxin wins by 2+
10%
Shenzhen Ruby FC wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenxin 1+ goals
67%
Shanghai Shenxin 2+ goals
31%
Shanghai Shenxin 3+ goals
10%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 1+ goals
82%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 2+ goals
50%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenxin (draw refunded)
33%
Shenzhen Ruby FC (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenxin at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

Shenzhen Ruby FC away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenxin attack 1.17 + Shenzhen Ruby FC defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.12

Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.36 + Shanghai Shenxin defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Shanghai Shenxin scores more
25%
level
24%
Shenzhen Ruby FC scores more
51%

Shenzhen Ruby FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Shenzhen Ruby FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shanghai Shenxin vs Shenzhen Ruby FC

Shenzhen Ruby FC beat Shanghai Shenxin 3-1 in League One on June 25, 2017.

The match was played at Jinshan Soccer Stadium (Shanghai).