Shanghai Shenhua 4–0 Qingdao Youth Island

Shanghai Shenhua

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Qingdao Youth Island

5/10/2025

Super League · Round 12Shanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Shanghai Shenhua63%

×Draw18%

Qingdao Youth Island19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shanghai ShenhuaExpected goals in this matchQingdao Youth Island

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.48

1.29

Shanghai Shenhua

2.48

Qingdao Youth Island

1.29

Shanghai Shenhua creates 92% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

2.49

creates per match

1.50

1.07

allows per match

2.46

creates per match

Shanghai Shenhua

2.49

Qingdao Youth Island

1.50

allows per match

Shanghai Shenhua

1.07

Qingdao Youth Island

2.46

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Shanghai Shenhua+0.18scores more

Qingdao Youth Island-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenhua ↓

Qingdao Youth Island →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenhua or draw

81%

Shanghai Shenhua or Qingdao Youth Island

82%

Draw or Qingdao Youth Island

37%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+

41%

Qingdao Youth Island wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals

92%

Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals

70%

Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals

44%

Qingdao Youth Island 1+ goals

72%

Qingdao Youth Island 2+ goals

37%

Qingdao Youth Island 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)

77%

Qingdao Youth Island (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenhua at home — creates 2.49, concedes 1.07 · 9 matches

Qingdao Youth Island away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.46 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenhua attack 2.49 + Qingdao Youth Island defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.48

Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.50 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Shanghai Shenhua scores more

63%

level

18%

Qingdao Youth Island scores more

19%

Shanghai Shenhua at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff