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Qingdao Youth Island vs Shanghai Shenhua — Super League 2026

Qingdao Youth Island
Qingdao Youth Island
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Shanghai Shenhua
Shanghai Shenhua
5/30/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 15Guzhenkou University Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Qingdao Youth Island37%
×Draw24%
Shanghai Shenhua40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qingdao Youth Island
1.56
Shanghai Shenhua
1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Qingdao Youth Island
1.64
Shanghai Shenhua
1.85

allows per match

Qingdao Youth Island
1.40
Shanghai Shenhua
1.48

finishing

Qingdao Youth Island+0.07on par
Shanghai Shenhua-0.42scores less

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Youth Island ↓

Shanghai Shenhua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Qingdao Youth Island or draw
60%
Qingdao Youth Island or Shanghai Shenhua
76%
Draw or Shanghai Shenhua
63%

Winning margin

Qingdao Youth Island wins by 2+
18%
Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Qingdao Youth Island 1+ goals
79%
Qingdao Youth Island 2+ goals
46%
Qingdao Youth Island 3+ goals
21%
Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals
80%
Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals
48%
Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Youth Island (draw refunded)
48%
Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Youth Island at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.40 · 7 matches

Shanghai Shenhua away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.48 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.64 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.56

Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.85 + Qingdao Youth Island defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Qingdao Youth Island scores more
37%
level
24%
Shanghai Shenhua scores more
40%

Shanghai Shenhua at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Qingdao Youth Island 2–2 Shanghai Shenhua

Qingdao Youth Island and Shanghai Shenhua drew 2-2 in Super League on May 30, 2026.

The match was played at Guzhenkou University Sports Center in Qingdao.