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Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Youth Island — Super League 2026

Shanghai Shenhua
Shanghai Shenhua
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Qingdao Youth Island
Qingdao Youth Island
3/8/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 2Shanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Shanghai Shenhua63%
×Draw18%
Qingdao Youth Island19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shanghai Shenhua
2.48
Qingdao Youth Island
1.29

Shanghai Shenhua creates 92% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

creates per match

Shanghai Shenhua
2.49
Qingdao Youth Island
1.50

allows per match

Shanghai Shenhua
1.07
Qingdao Youth Island
2.46

finishing

Shanghai Shenhua+0.18scores more
Qingdao Youth Island-0.10scores less

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenhua ↓

Qingdao Youth Island →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenhua or draw
81%
Shanghai Shenhua or Qingdao Youth Island
82%
Draw or Qingdao Youth Island
37%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+
41%
Qingdao Youth Island wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals
92%
Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals
70%
Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals
44%
Qingdao Youth Island 1+ goals
72%
Qingdao Youth Island 2+ goals
37%
Qingdao Youth Island 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)
77%
Qingdao Youth Island (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenhua at home — creates 2.49, concedes 1.07 · 9 matches

Qingdao Youth Island away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.46 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenhua attack 2.49 + Qingdao Youth Island defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.48

Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.50 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Shanghai Shenhua scores more
63%
level
18%
Qingdao Youth Island scores more
19%

Shanghai Shenhua at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Youth Island

Shanghai Shenhua beat Qingdao Youth Island 2-0 in Super League on March 8, 2024.

The match was played at Shanghai Stadium in Shanghai.