Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye — Super League 2026

Shanghai Shenhua
Shanghai Shenhua
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Henan Jianye
Henan Jianye
L. Asue 57'
J. Teixeira 45'
Jiang Shenglong 17'
F. Acheampong 76'
Bruno Nazario 45' (pen)
7/27/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 18Shanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Shanghai Shenhua56%
×Draw22%
Henan Jianye22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shanghai Shenhua
2.00
Henan Jianye
1.17

Shanghai Shenhua creates 71% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 23 away

creates per match

Shanghai Shenhua
2.46
Henan Jianye
1.42

allows per match

Shanghai Shenhua
0.92
Henan Jianye
1.54

finishing

Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par
Henan Jianye-0.33scores less

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenhua ↓

Henan Jianye →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenhua or draw
78%
Shanghai Shenhua or Henan Jianye
78%
Draw or Henan Jianye
44%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+
33%
Henan Jianye wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals
86%
Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals
59%
Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals
32%
Henan Jianye 1+ goals
69%
Henan Jianye 2+ goals
33%
Henan Jianye 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)
72%
Henan Jianye (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenhua at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.92 · 24 matches

Henan Jianye away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.54 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenhua attack 2.46 + Henan Jianye defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 2.00

Henan Jianye attack 1.42 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Shanghai Shenhua scores more
56%
level
22%
Henan Jianye scores more
22%

Shanghai Shenhua at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
J. TeixeiraShanghai ShenhuaShanghai Shenhua · M
8.6

Match Events

17'
Jiang Shenglong↳ Gao Tianyi
32'
Jin Shunkai← Zhu Chenjie
39'
Bruno Nazário
45+1'
Frank AcheampongPenalty confirmed
45'
Bruno NazarioPenalty
45'
J. Teixeira
46'
Lu Yongtao← A. Abudulam
49'
Tianyi Gao
57'
L. Asue↳ Wu Xi
61'
Wilson Manafá
63'
I. Amadou← L. Asue
63'
Yang Haoyu← Gao Tianyi
63'
Huang Zichang← Zhong Yihao
76'
Liu Bin← Liu Yixin
76'
F. Acheampong↳ Iago Maidana
86'
He Chao← Wang Shangyuan
86'
Niu Ziyi← Shinar Yeljan
90+3'
Zichang Huang

Possession

47%Shanghai

Shots

19Shanghai

Pass accuracy

50%Shanghai

Statistics

ShanghaiHenan
Overview
47%Possession53%
19Total Shots10
2.38Expected Goals (xG)1.34
7Corners3
16Fouls10
Shots
19Total Shots10
9On Target4
6Off Target2
4Blocked4
14Inside Box8
5Outside Box2
Passing
47%Possession53%
416Total Passes479
353Accurate Passes413
85%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
2Saves6
Discipline
16Fouls10
2Yellow Cards2
4Offsides0

Super League: Shanghai Shenhua 3–2 Henan Jianye

Shanghai Shenhua beat Henan Jianye 3-2 in Super League on July 27, 2025.

Goals: Jiang Shenglong (17'), Bruno Nazario (45' pen), J. Teixeira (45'), L. Asue (57'), F. Acheampong (76').

Henan Jianye controlled possession (53%) and registered 10 shots to 19.

The match was played at Shanghai Stadium in Shanghai.