Shanghai Shenhua 2–1 Henan Jianye: Result & Stats

Shanghai Shenhua

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Henan Jianye

Wu Xi 89'

João Teixeira 64'

N. Čović 62'

10/18/2024

Super League · Round 28Shanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Shanghai Shenhua59%

×Draw21%

Henan Jianye20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shanghai ShenhuaExpected goals in this matchHenan Jianye

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

1.14

Shanghai Shenhua

2.07

Henan Jianye

1.14

Shanghai Shenhua creates 82% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 24 away

2.51

creates per match

1.37

0.90

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Shanghai Shenhua

2.51

Henan Jianye

1.37

allows per match

Shanghai Shenhua

0.90

Henan Jianye

1.63

-0.07on par

finishing

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

Shanghai Shenhua-0.07on par

Henan Jianye-0.29scores less

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenhua ↓

Henan Jianye →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenhua or draw

80%

Shanghai Shenhua or Henan Jianye

79%

Draw or Henan Jianye

41%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+

35%

Henan Jianye wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals

87%

Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals

61%

Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals

34%

Henan Jianye 1+ goals

68%

Henan Jianye 2+ goals

32%

Henan Jianye 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)

74%

Henan Jianye (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenhua at home — creates 2.51, concedes 0.90 · 25 matches

Henan Jianye away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.63 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenhua attack 2.51 + Henan Jianye defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.07

Henan Jianye attack 1.37 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Shanghai Shenhua scores more

59%

level

21%

Henan Jianye scores more

20%

Shanghai Shenhua at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

João Teixeira

Shanghai Shenhua · M

8.9

Match Events

46'

Wang Shangyuan← Du Zhixuan

62'

N. Čović↳ Liu Yixin

63'

Yu Hanchao← Fei Nanduo

63'

Aidi Fulangxisi← Gao Tianyi

64'

João Teixeira↳ André Luís

70'

Huang Zichang← F. Acheampong

76'

Huang Ruifeng

78'

Ding Haifeng← Huang Ruifeng

78'

Yang Yilin← Bruno Nazário

79'

Guan He

82'

Gu Cao← Li Songyi

83'

Xu Haoyang← Chan Shinichi

89'

Wu Xi↳ Xu Haoyang

90+5'

Aidi Fulang Xisi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShanghaiHenan

Overview

66%Possession34%

31Total Shots8

3.63Expected Goals (xG)0.25

11Corners5

8Fouls9

Shots

31Total Shots8

9On Target2

10Off Target3

12Blocked3

20Inside Box3

11Outside Box5

Passing

66%Possession34%

505Total Passes278

442Accurate Passes213

88%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

8Fouls9

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1