Henan Jianye 1–3 Shanghai Shenhua: Result & Stats

Henan Jianye

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Shanghai Shenhua

Iago Maidana 42'

Xie Pengfei 90'

Wu Xi 74'

Saulo Mineiro 67'

3/29/2025

Super League · Round 3Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Henan Jianye39%

×Draw24%

Shanghai Shenhua37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Henan JianyeExpected goals in this matchShanghai Shenhua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.52

Henan Jianye

1.56

Shanghai Shenhua

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 25 away

1.81

creates per match

1.78

1.25

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Henan Jianye

1.81

Shanghai Shenhua

1.78

allows per match

Henan Jianye

1.25

Shanghai Shenhua

1.30

+0.03on par

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Henan Jianye+0.03on par

Shanghai Shenhua+0.10scores more

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Henan Jianye ↓

Shanghai Shenhua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Henan Jianye or draw

63%

Henan Jianye or Shanghai Shenhua

76%

Draw or Shanghai Shenhua

61%

Winning margin

Henan Jianye wins by 2+

19%

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Henan Jianye 1+ goals

79%

Henan Jianye 2+ goals

46%

Henan Jianye 3+ goals

21%

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals

78%

Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals

45%

Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Henan Jianye (draw refunded)

51%

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Henan Jianye at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.25 · 25 matches

Shanghai Shenhua away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.30 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Henan Jianye attack 1.81 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.56

Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.78 + Henan Jianye defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Henan Jianye scores more

39%

level

24%

Shanghai Shenhua scores more

37%

Henan Jianye at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Henan Jianye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

Wu Xi

Shanghai Shenhua · M

8.6

Match Events

22'

André Luis

42'

Iago Maidana↳ F. Acheampong

46'

Yang Zexiang← Wang Shilong

55'

Felippe Cardoso← F. Acheampong

66'

Huang Zichang← Zheng Dalun

66'

Yang Yilin← Liu Yixin

67'

Saulo Mineiro↳ Gao Tianyi

74'

Wu Xi↳ Saulo Mineiro

76'

Xu Haoyang← Gao Tianyi

76'

Xie Pengfei← Andre Luis

81'

Zhong Yihao← Liu Xinyu

81'

Liu Bin←

88'

Shangyuan Wang

90+7'

Wang Haijian← W. Manafa

90'

Xie Pengfei

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HenanShanghai

Overview

39%Possession61%

8Total Shots16

1.31Expected Goals (xG)2.33

2Corners9

19Fouls17

Shots

8Total Shots16

5On Target7

3Off Target6

0Blocked3

7Inside Box11

1Outside Box5

Passing

39%Possession61%

291Total Passes455

212Accurate Passes376

73%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

19Fouls17

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua

Shanghai Shenhua beat Henan Jianye 3-1 in Super League on March 29, 2025.

Goals: Iago Maidana (42'), Saulo Mineiro (67'), Wu Xi (74'), Xie Pengfei (90').

Shanghai Shenhua controlled possession (61%) and registered 16 shots to 8.

The match was played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium in Zhengzhou.

Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua