Shanghai Shenhua 5–3 Dalian Zhixing: Result & Stats

Shanghai Shenhua

FT

5 – 3

HT: 3 – 1

Dalian Zhixing

Rafael Ratao 88', 45'

M. Gueye 63', 45'

J. Teixeira 8'

Feng Jing 90'

F. Acheampong 82'

C. Malele 5'

3/7/2026

Super League · Round 1Shanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Shanghai Shenhua63%

×Draw19%

Dalian Zhixing18%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shanghai ShenhuaExpected goals in this matchDalian Zhixing

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.11

Shanghai Shenhua

2.27

Dalian Zhixing

1.11

Shanghai Shenhua creates 105% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

2.49

creates per match

1.16

1.07

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Shanghai Shenhua

2.49

Dalian Zhixing

1.16

allows per match

Shanghai Shenhua

1.07

Dalian Zhixing

2.05

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

Shanghai Shenhua+0.18scores more

Dalian Zhixing-0.16scores less

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenhua ↓

Dalian Zhixing →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenhua or draw

82%

Shanghai Shenhua or Dalian Zhixing

81%

Draw or Dalian Zhixing

37%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+

40%

Dalian Zhixing wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals

90%

Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals

66%

Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals

39%

Dalian Zhixing 1+ goals

67%

Dalian Zhixing 2+ goals

30%

Dalian Zhixing 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)

78%

Dalian Zhixing (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenhua at home — creates 2.49, concedes 1.07 · 9 matches

Dalian Zhixing away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.05 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenhua attack 2.49 + Dalian Zhixing defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.27

Dalian Zhixing attack 1.16 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Shanghai Shenhua scores more

63%

level

19%

Dalian Zhixing scores more

18%

Shanghai Shenhua at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Rafael Ratao

Shanghai Shenhua · F

9.2

Match Events

5'

C. Malele↳ F. Acheampong

6'

8'

24'

45'

45'

46'

Feng Jing← Yang Mingrui

46'

Liao Jintao← Lu Peng

59'

Cao Haiqing← Wen Jiabao

63'

M. Gueye

67'

Q. Wu← L. Ke

70'

Jintao Liao

70'

P. Zhu← I. Alimi

77'

Yang Zexiang← Chan Shinichi

77'

Yang Shuai← Zhu Chenjie

78'

Yang Haoyu← Gao Tianyi

82'

F. Acheampong↳ C. Malele

88'

Rafael Ratao↳ M. Gueye

90+2'

Jin Feng

90+1'

Liu Chengyu← Rafael Ratao

90'

Feng Jing↳ Liao Jintao

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShanghaiDalian

Overview

69%Possession31%

21Total Shots12

4.11Expected Goals (xG)1.48

10Corners6

15Fouls8

Shots

21Total Shots12

11On Target4

4Off Target4

6Blocked4

15Inside Box8

6Outside Box4

Passing

69%Possession31%

588Total Passes258

518Accurate Passes187

88%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

15Fouls8

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Zhixing

Shanghai Shenhua beat Dalian Zhixing 5-3 in Super League on March 7, 2026.

Goals: C. Malele (5'), J. Teixeira (8'), M. Gueye (45', 63'), Rafael Ratao (45', 88'), F. Acheampong (82'), Feng Jing (90').

Shanghai Shenhua controlled possession (69%) and registered 21 shots to 12.

The match was played at Shanghai Stadium in Shanghai.

Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Zhixing — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Zhixing