Dalian Zhixing 0–3 Shanghai Shenhua: Result & Stats

Dalian Zhixing

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Shanghai Shenhua

Saulo Mineiro 52'

Liu Chengyu 38'

J. Teixeira 34'

5/17/2025

Super League · Round 13Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Dalian Zhixing29%

×Draw23%

Shanghai Shenhua47%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dalian ZhixingExpected goals in this matchShanghai Shenhua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.78

Dalian Zhixing

1.36

Shanghai Shenhua

1.78

Shanghai Shenhua creates 31% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

1.25

creates per match

1.85

1.71

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Dalian Zhixing

1.25

Shanghai Shenhua

1.85

allows per match

Dalian Zhixing

1.71

Shanghai Shenhua

1.48

+0.08on par

finishing

-0.42scores less than expected

finishing

Dalian Zhixing+0.08on par

Shanghai Shenhua-0.42scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalian Zhixing ↓

Shanghai Shenhua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Dalian Zhixing or draw

53%

Dalian Zhixing or Shanghai Shenhua

77%

Draw or Shanghai Shenhua

71%

Winning margin

Dalian Zhixing wins by 2+

13%

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Dalian Zhixing 1+ goals

74%

Dalian Zhixing 2+ goals

39%

Dalian Zhixing 3+ goals

16%

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals

83%

Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals

53%

Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Dalian Zhixing (draw refunded)

38%

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalian Zhixing at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.71 · 6 matches

Shanghai Shenhua away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.48 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalian Zhixing attack 1.25 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.36

Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.85 + Dalian Zhixing defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dalian Zhixing scores more

29%

level

23%

Shanghai Shenhua scores more

47%

Shanghai Shenhua at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

Wu Xi

Shanghai Shenhua · M

8.2

Match Events

34'

J. Teixeira

38'

Liu Chengyu↳ Saulo Mineiro

46'

Z. Labyad← Yang Mingrui

46'

Wen Jiabao← Lu Zhuoyi

52'

Saulo Mineiro↳ Wu Xi

56'

Cephas MaleleGoal cancelled

63'

Yang Haoyu← Gao Tianyi

63'

Andre Luis← Liu Chengyu

63'

Yang Zexiang← Chan Shinichi

67'

Liu Yi← Lu Peng

69'

Xu Haoyang← L. Ke

75'

Zhao Xuebin← P. Zhu

77'

Yu Hanchao← Saulo Mineiro

88'

Huang Shan← W. Mao

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DalianShanghai

Overview

46%Possession54%

14Total Shots17

1.32Expected Goals (xG)3.74

5Corners7

12Fouls9

Shots

14Total Shots17

3On Target9

7Off Target4

4Blocked4

7Inside Box13

7Outside Box4

Passing

46%Possession54%

405Total Passes474

310Accurate Passes367

77%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls9

3Offsides3