Shanghai Shenhua 2–2 Dalian Zhixing: Result & Stats

Shanghai Shenhua

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Dalian Zhixing

Andre Luis 90' (pen)

Wu Xi 43'

Liu Zhurun 39'

Lu Zhuoyi 25'

10/26/2025

Super League · Round 28Shanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Shanghai Shenhua63%

×Draw20%

Dalian Zhixing18%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shanghai ShenhuaExpected goals in this matchDalian Zhixing

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.07

Shanghai Shenhua

2.19

Dalian Zhixing

1.07

Shanghai Shenhua creates 105% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

2.49

creates per match

1.07

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Shanghai Shenhua

2.49

Dalian Zhixing

1.07

allows per match

Shanghai Shenhua

1.07

Dalian Zhixing

1.89

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Shanghai Shenhua+0.18scores more

Dalian Zhixing+0.07on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenhua ↓

Dalian Zhixing →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenhua or draw

82%

Shanghai Shenhua or Dalian Zhixing

80%

Draw or Dalian Zhixing

37%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+

39%

Dalian Zhixing wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals

89%

Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals

64%

Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals

37%

Dalian Zhixing 1+ goals

66%

Dalian Zhixing 2+ goals

29%

Dalian Zhixing 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)

78%

Dalian Zhixing (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenhua at home — creates 2.49, concedes 1.07 · 9 matches

Dalian Zhixing away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.89 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenhua attack 2.49 + Dalian Zhixing defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.19

Dalian Zhixing attack 1.07 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Shanghai Shenhua scores more

63%

level

20%

Dalian Zhixing scores more

18%

Shanghai Shenhua at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

Daniel Penha

Dalian Zhixing · M

8.3

Match Events

-5'

Zhu Pengyu

-5'

Zhu Pengyu

25'

Lu Zhuoyi↳ P. Zhu

39'

Liu Zhurun↳ Daniel Penha

43'

Wu Xi↳ Zhu Chenjie

53'

Xu Haoyang← Chan Shinichi

56'

André LuisPenalty cancelled

70'

I. Amadou← Jin Shunkai

70'

Liu Chengyu← Gao Tianyi

77'

Yang Mingrui← Wen Jiabao

80'

Liao Jintao← Liu Zhurun

82'

83'

88'

89'

90+13'

90+7'

Xi WuPenalty confirmed

90+8'

Jinhao Bi

90'

Andre LuisPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShanghaiDalian

Overview

63%Possession37%

16Total Shots11

1.51Expected Goals (xG)0.90

7Corners1

15Fouls8

Shots

16Total Shots11

5On Target6

6Off Target3

5Blocked2

11Inside Box5

5Outside Box6

Passing

63%Possession37%

594Total Passes364

519Accurate Passes287

87%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls8

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

0Offsides3

Super League: Shanghai Shenhua 2–2 Dalian Zhixing

Shanghai Shenhua and Dalian Zhixing drew 2-2 in Super League on October 26, 2025.

Goals: Lu Zhuoyi (25'), Liu Zhurun (39'), Wu Xi (43'), Andre Luis (90' pen).

Shanghai Shenhua controlled possession (63%) and registered 16 shots to 11.

The match was played at Shanghai Stadium in Shanghai.

Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Zhixing — Super League 2024

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Super League: Shanghai Shenhua 2–2 Dalian Zhixing