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Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan — Super League 2026

Shanghai Shenhua
Shanghai Shenhua
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Beijing Guoan
Beijing Guoan
3/1/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 2Shanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Shanghai Shenhua57%
×Draw21%
Beijing Guoan21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shanghai Shenhua
2.01
Beijing Guoan
1.14

Shanghai Shenhua creates 76% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

creates per match

Shanghai Shenhua
2.59
Beijing Guoan
1.36

allows per match

Shanghai Shenhua
0.92
Beijing Guoan
1.43

finishing

Shanghai Shenhua-0.03on par
Beijing Guoan+0.45scores more

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenhua ↓

Beijing Guoan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenhua or draw
79%
Shanghai Shenhua or Beijing Guoan
79%
Draw or Beijing Guoan
43%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+
34%
Beijing Guoan wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals
87%
Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals
59%
Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals
32%
Beijing Guoan 1+ goals
68%
Beijing Guoan 2+ goals
32%
Beijing Guoan 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)
73%
Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenhua at home — creates 2.59, concedes 0.92 · 16 matches

Beijing Guoan away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.43 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenhua attack 2.59 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 2.01

Beijing Guoan attack 1.36 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Shanghai Shenhua scores more
57%
level
21%
Beijing Guoan scores more
21%

Shanghai Shenhua at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan

Shanghai Shenhua and Beijing Guoan drew 2-2 in Super League on March 1, 2025.

The match was played at Shanghai Stadium in Shanghai.