Shanghai Shenhua 2–1 Beijing Guoan: Result & Stats

Shanghai Shenhua

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Beijing Guoan

Chan Shinichi 90+1'

João Teixeira 12'

Zhang Yuning 90+3'

8/22/2024

FA Cup · Quarter-finalsShanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Shanghai Shenhua32%

×Draw23%

Beijing Guoan45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shanghai ShenhuaExpected goals in this matchBeijing Guoan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.83

Shanghai Shenhua

1.51

Beijing Guoan

1.83

Beijing Guoan creates 21% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

2.36

creates per match

2.56

1.09

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Shanghai Shenhua

2.36

Beijing Guoan

2.56

allows per match

Shanghai Shenhua

1.09

Beijing Guoan

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par

Beijing Guoan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenhua ↓

Beijing Guoan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenhua or draw

55%

Shanghai Shenhua or Beijing Guoan

77%

Draw or Beijing Guoan

68%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+

15%

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals

78%

Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals

44%

Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals

19%

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals

84%

Beijing Guoan 2+ goals

54%

Beijing Guoan 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)

41%

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenhua at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Beijing Guoan away — creates 2.56, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenhua attack 2.36 + Beijing Guoan defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.51

Beijing Guoan attack 2.56 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Shanghai Shenhua scores more

32%

level

23%

Beijing Guoan scores more

45%

Beijing Guoan at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Beijing Guoan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

João Teixeira↳ Xu Haoyang

23'

J. Teixeira

55'

Chi Zhongguo

63'

Chan Shinichi← Yang Zexiang

63'

Zhang Yuning← Chi Zhongguo

63'

Zhang Xizhe← Wang Ziming

68'

Xie Pengfei← Fei Nanduo

68'

S. Adegbenro← Lin Liangming

81'

Cao Yongjing← Zhang Yuan

90+5'

90+7'

90+10'

90+11'

90+4'

Yu Hanchao← Wu Xi

90+1'

Chan Shinichi↳ André Luís

90+3'

Zhang Yuning↳ Cao Yongjing

Shanghai

Beijing

1

27

4

5

2

8

6

▼

Zhongguo

21

▼

Yuan

29

Abreu

11

▼

Liangming

20

▼

Ziming

30

Yaxiong

16

▼

Zexiang

4

Shenglong

5

Chenjie

15

▼

Xi

6

Amadou

10

⚽

Teixeira

7

A

Haoyang

33

Haijian

18

▼

Nanduo

9

A

Luís

Manager: L. Slutskiy

63'▲Chan Shinichi←▼Yang Zexiang

68'▲Xie Pengfei←▼Fei Nanduo

90+4'▲Yu Hanchao←▼Wu Xi

Shanghai Shenhua substitutes

27Shinichi14Pengfei20Hanchao17Tianyi1Zhen32Fulangxisi39Yujie38Jiabao41Zhengkai29Junchen36Ernanduo

Manager: Ricardo Soares

63'▲Zhang Yuning←▼Chi Zhongguo

63'▲Zhang Xizhe←▼Wang Ziming

68'▲S. Adegbenro←▼Lin Liangming

81'▲Cao Yongjing←▼Zhang Yuan

Beijing Guoan substitutes

9Yuning10Xizhe24Adegbenro37Yongjing3Yupeng22Dabao16Boxuan23Ke17Liyu25Tuluo18Hao28Chengdong