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Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua — Super League 2026

Beijing Guoan
Beijing Guoan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Shanghai Shenhua
Shanghai Shenhua
Zhang Yuning 23'
Chan Shinichi 68'
3/21/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 3Beijing Workers' Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Beijing Guoan43%
×Draw23%
Shanghai Shenhua34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beijing Guoan
1.75
Shanghai Shenhua
1.53

Beijing Guoan creates 14% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 11 away

creates per match

Beijing Guoan
2.17
Shanghai Shenhua
1.92

allows per match

Beijing Guoan
1.15
Shanghai Shenhua
1.32

finishing

Beijing Guoan+0.03on par
Shanghai Shenhua-0.01on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Guoan ↓

Shanghai Shenhua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Beijing Guoan or draw
66%
Beijing Guoan or Shanghai Shenhua
77%
Draw or Shanghai Shenhua
57%

Winning margin

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+
23%
Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals
83%
Beijing Guoan 2+ goals
52%
Beijing Guoan 3+ goals
25%
Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals
78%
Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals
45%
Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)
56%
Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Guoan at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.15 · 15 matches

Shanghai Shenhua away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.32 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Guoan attack 2.17 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.75

Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.92 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Beijing Guoan scores more
43%
level
23%
Shanghai Shenhua scores more
34%

Beijing Guoan at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Beijing Guoan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27
Chan ShinichiShanghai ShenhuaShanghai Shenhua · D
8.0

Match Events

-5'
Shilong Wang
23'
Zhang Yuning↳ B. Nkololo
44'
Fabio Abreu
60'
Yang Zexiang← Wang Haijian
62'
Feng Boxuan← J. Deng
66'
Abduhamit Abdugheni
68'
Chan Shinichi
74'
Tianyi Gao
75'
Xie Pengfei← Saulo Mineiro
78'
Chi Zhongguo← Zhang Xizhe
78'
Cao Yongjing← Lin Liangming
85'
Zexiang Yang
85'
Xu Haoyang← Gao Tianyi

Possession

48%Beijing

Shots

12Beijing

Pass accuracy

50%Beijing

Statistics

BeijingShanghai
Overview
48%Possession52%
12Total Shots6
1.37Expected Goals (xG)0.57
9Corners4
13Fouls16
Shots
12Total Shots6
3On Target1
6Off Target5
3Blocked1
9Inside Box4
3Outside Box2
Passing
48%Possession52%
283Total Passes336
194Accurate Passes236
69%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls16
2Yellow Cards3
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Beijing Guoan vs Shanghai Shenhua

Beijing Guoan and Shanghai Shenhua drew 1-1 in Super League on March 21, 2026.

Goals: Zhang Yuning (23'), Chan Shinichi (68').

Shanghai Shenhua controlled possession (52%) and registered 6 shots to 12.

The match was played at Beijing Workers' Stadium in Beijing.