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Shanghai Shenhua vs Beijing Guoan — Super League 2026

Shanghai Shenhua
Shanghai Shenhua
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Beijing Guoan
Beijing Guoan
O. Ighalo 58' (pen)
Renato Augusto 62'
C. Bakambu 6'
11/22/2019Super LeagueSuper League · Round 28Shanghai Hongkou Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Shanghai Shenhua54%
×Draw22%
Beijing Guoan24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shanghai Shenhua
1.96
Beijing Guoan
1.24

Shanghai Shenhua creates 58% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 35 away

creates per match

Shanghai Shenhua
2.46
Beijing Guoan
1.55

allows per match

Shanghai Shenhua
0.92
Beijing Guoan
1.47

finishing

Shanghai Shenhua-0.09on par
Beijing Guoan+0.31scores more

Total goals

Over: 62Under: 3862%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 61No: 3961%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenhua ↓

Beijing Guoan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenhua or draw
76%
Shanghai Shenhua or Beijing Guoan
78%
Draw or Beijing Guoan
46%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+
31%
Beijing Guoan wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals
86%
Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals
58%
Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals
31%
Beijing Guoan 1+ goals
71%
Beijing Guoan 2+ goals
35%
Beijing Guoan 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)
69%
Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenhua at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.92 · 27 matches

Beijing Guoan away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.47 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenhua attack 2.46 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.96

Beijing Guoan attack 1.55 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Shanghai Shenhua scores more
54%
level
22%
Beijing Guoan scores more
24%

Shanghai Shenhua at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
G. MorenoShanghai ShenhuaShanghai Shenhua · M
8.1

Match Events

6'
C. Bakambu↳ Piao Cheng
9'
Shilin Sun
32'
Odion Ighalo
32'
Yang Yu
58'
O. IghaloPenalty
62'
Renato Augusto
70'
S. El Shaarawy← Sun Shilin
71'
Lü Peng← Zhang Xizhe
72'
Yuning Zhang
78'
Alexander N'Doumbou
84'
Cong Zhen← Peng Xinli
86'
Hou Yongyong← Zhang Yuning
90+2'
Wang Ziming← C. Bakambu

Possession

Shanghai: 44Beijing: 5644%Shanghai

Shots

Shanghai: 19Beijing: 2119Shanghai

Pass accuracy

Shanghai: 77Beijing: 8348%Shanghai

Statistics

ShanghaiBeijing
Overview
44%Possession56%
19Total Shots21
7Corners5
15Fouls10
Shots
19Total Shots21
3On Target6
12Off Target8
4Blocked7
11Inside Box9
8Outside Box12
Passing
44%Possession56%
317Total Passes408
243Accurate Passes337
77%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
15Fouls10
3Yellow Cards2
1Offsides4

Super League: Shanghai Shenhua 1–2 Beijing Guoan

Beijing Guoan beat Shanghai Shenhua 2-1 in Super League on November 22, 2019.

Goals: C. Bakambu (6'), O. Ighalo (58' pen), Renato Augusto (62').

Beijing Guoan controlled possession (56%) and registered 21 shots to 19.

The match was played at Shanghai Hongkou Football Stadium in Shanghai.