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Shanghai Jiading vs Beijing Baxy — League One 2018

Shanghai Jiading
Shanghai Jiading
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Beijing Baxy
Beijing Baxy
6/30/2022League OneLeague One · Round 6Dalian Pro Soccer Academy Base

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Shanghai Jiading40%
×Draw27%
Beijing Baxy33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shanghai Jiading
1.33
Beijing Baxy
1.17

Shanghai Jiading creates 14% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 71 away

creates per match

Shanghai Jiading
1.11
Beijing Baxy
1.07

allows per match

Shanghai Jiading
1.27
Beijing Baxy
1.56

finishing

Shanghai Jiading+0.00on par
Beijing Baxy+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Jiading ↓

Beijing Baxy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Shanghai Jiading or draw
67%
Shanghai Jiading or Beijing Baxy
73%
Draw or Beijing Baxy
60%

Winning margin

Shanghai Jiading wins by 2+
18%
Beijing Baxy wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Shanghai Jiading 1+ goals
74%
Shanghai Jiading 2+ goals
38%
Shanghai Jiading 3+ goals
15%
Beijing Baxy 1+ goals
69%
Beijing Baxy 2+ goals
33%
Beijing Baxy 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Jiading (draw refunded)
55%
Beijing Baxy (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Jiading at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

Beijing Baxy away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.56 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Jiading attack 1.11 + Beijing Baxy defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.33

Beijing Baxy attack 1.07 + Shanghai Jiading defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Shanghai Jiading scores more
40%
level
27%
Beijing Baxy scores more
33%

Shanghai Jiading at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Shanghai Jiading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shanghai Jiading vs Beijing Baxy

Shanghai Jiading beat Beijing Baxy 2-0 in League One on June 30, 2022.

The match was played at Dalian Pro Soccer Academy Base in Dalian.