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Shanghai Jiading vs Beijing Baxy — FA Cup 2019

Shanghai Jiading
Shanghai Jiading
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Beijing Baxy
Beijing Baxy
5/1/2019FA CupFA Cup · 4th RoundJiading Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Shanghai Jiading63%
×Draw22%
Beijing Baxy15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shanghai Jiading
1.90
Beijing Baxy
0.80

Shanghai Jiading creates 137% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Shanghai Jiading
2.00
Beijing Baxy
1.60

allows per match

Shanghai Jiading
0.00
Beijing Baxy
1.80

finishing

Shanghai Jiading+0.00on par
Beijing Baxy+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Jiading ↓

Beijing Baxy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Shanghai Jiading or draw
85%
Shanghai Jiading or Beijing Baxy
78%
Draw or Beijing Baxy
37%

Winning margin

Shanghai Jiading wins by 2+
38%
Beijing Baxy wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Shanghai Jiading 1+ goals
85%
Shanghai Jiading 2+ goals
56%
Shanghai Jiading 3+ goals
29%
Beijing Baxy 1+ goals
55%
Beijing Baxy 2+ goals
19%
Beijing Baxy 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Jiading (draw refunded)
81%
Beijing Baxy (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Jiading at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

Beijing Baxy away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Jiading attack 2.00 + Beijing Baxy defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.90

Beijing Baxy attack 1.60 + Shanghai Jiading defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Shanghai Jiading scores more
63%
level
22%
Beijing Baxy scores more
15%

Shanghai Jiading at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Shanghai Jiading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Shanghai Jiading 1–0 Beijing Baxy

Shanghai Jiading beat Beijing Baxy 1-0 in FA Cup on May 1, 2019.

The match was played at Jiading Stadium in Shanghai.