Beijing Baxy 2–1 Shanghai Jiading: Result & Stats

Beijing Baxy

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Shanghai Jiading

6/13/2022

League One · Round 2Dalian Pro Soccer Academy Base

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Beijing Baxy51%

×Draw27%

Shanghai Jiading22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beijing BaxyExpected goals in this matchShanghai Jiading

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.86

Beijing Baxy

1.46

Shanghai Jiading

0.86

Beijing Baxy creates 70% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 62 away

1.39

creates per match

0.58

1.15

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Beijing Baxy

1.39

Shanghai Jiading

0.58

allows per match

Beijing Baxy

1.15

Shanghai Jiading

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beijing Baxy+0.00on par

Shanghai Jiading+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Baxy ↓

Shanghai Jiading →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Beijing Baxy or draw

78%

Beijing Baxy or Shanghai Jiading

73%

Draw or Shanghai Jiading

49%

Winning margin

Beijing Baxy wins by 2+

26%

Shanghai Jiading wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Beijing Baxy 1+ goals

77%

Beijing Baxy 2+ goals

43%

Beijing Baxy 3+ goals

18%

Shanghai Jiading 1+ goals

58%

Shanghai Jiading 2+ goals

21%

Shanghai Jiading 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Beijing Baxy (draw refunded)

70%

Shanghai Jiading (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Baxy at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.15 · 72 matches

Shanghai Jiading away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.52 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Baxy attack 1.39 + Shanghai Jiading defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.46

Shanghai Jiading attack 0.58 + Beijing Baxy defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Beijing Baxy scores more

51%

level

27%

Shanghai Jiading scores more

22%

Beijing Baxy at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Beijing Baxy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff