Shandong Luneng vs Henan Jianye

Shandong Luneng

Preview

11:35

Henan Jianye

7/26/2026

Super League · Round 20Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium

Big match

52%

Shandong Luneng

model favours

52%23%24%

88% of Shandong Luneng’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

57%

over 2.5 goals

58%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Shandong Luneng52%

×Draw23%

Henan Jianye24%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shandong LunengExpected goals in this matchHenan Jianye

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.17

Shandong Luneng

1.82

Henan Jianye

1.17

Shandong Luneng creates 56% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 14 away

2.05

creates per match

1.46

0.88

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Shandong Luneng

2.05

Henan Jianye

1.46

allows per match

Shandong Luneng

0.88

Henan Jianye

1.60

+0.70scores more than expected

finishing

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

Shandong Luneng+0.70scores more

Henan Jianye-0.39scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shandong Luneng ↓

Henan Jianye →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Shandong Luneng or draw

76%

Shandong Luneng or Henan Jianye

77%

Draw or Henan Jianye

48%

Winning margin

Shandong Luneng wins by 2+

29%

Henan Jianye wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Shandong Luneng 1+ goals

84%

Shandong Luneng 2+ goals

54%

Shandong Luneng 3+ goals

27%

Henan Jianye 1+ goals

69%

Henan Jianye 2+ goals

33%

Henan Jianye 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)

68%

Henan Jianye (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shandong Luneng at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.88 · 12 matches

Henan Jianye away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.60 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shandong Luneng attack 2.05 + Henan Jianye defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.82

Henan Jianye attack 1.46 + Shandong Luneng defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Shandong Luneng scores more

52%

level

23%

Henan Jianye scores more

24%

Shandong Luneng at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Shandong Luneng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Both teams score in 88% of Shandong Luneng’s matches
Henan Jianye have scored in 10 games running
Both sides lean high-scoring (88% and 63% over 2.5)
45% of Henan Jianye’s goals come after the 75th minute
38% of Shandong Luneng’s goals come after the 75th minute
Style contrast — Shandong Luneng play Attack-heavy, Henan Jianye Defensively solid

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Shandong Luneng

Attack-heavy

Henan Jianye

Defensively solid

53%Possession48%

81%Pass accuracy77%

15.8ShotsBiggest gap12.3

1.81xG1.82

Shandong LunengHenan Jianye

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5

Shandong Luneng

3

Draws

2

Henan Jianye

Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 50%

1–02–20–03–10–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Luneng

DLWLW

Jianye

DWLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff