Henan Jianye 1–0 Shandong Luneng: Result & Stats

Henan Jianye

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Shandong Luneng

7/28/2024

Super League · Round 20Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Henan Jianye53%

×Draw22%

Shandong Luneng25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Henan JianyeExpected goals in this matchShandong Luneng

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.30

Henan Jianye

2.00

Shandong Luneng

1.30

Henan Jianye creates 54% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

2.11

creates per match

1.54

1.06

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Henan Jianye

2.11

Shandong Luneng

1.54

allows per match

Henan Jianye

1.06

Shandong Luneng

1.90

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Henan Jianye+0.11scores more

Shandong Luneng-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Henan Jianye ↓

Shandong Luneng →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Henan Jianye or draw

75%

Henan Jianye or Shandong Luneng

78%

Draw or Shandong Luneng

47%

Winning margin

Henan Jianye wins by 2+

31%

Shandong Luneng wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Henan Jianye 1+ goals

86%

Henan Jianye 2+ goals

59%

Henan Jianye 3+ goals

32%

Shandong Luneng 1+ goals

73%

Shandong Luneng 2+ goals

37%

Shandong Luneng 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Henan Jianye (draw refunded)

68%

Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Henan Jianye at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.06 · 9 matches

Shandong Luneng away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.90 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Henan Jianye attack 2.11 + Shandong Luneng defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.00

Shandong Luneng attack 1.54 + Henan Jianye defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Henan Jianye scores more

53%

level

22%

Shandong Luneng scores more

25%

Henan Jianye at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Henan Jianye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff